Near Term [Through Today]...
Rare early July cold front, driven into the deep south by a deepening trough over the eastern third of the country, will stall across the southeastern Big Bend this afternoon. A much drier and slightly cooler airmass will move into the region in the wake of the front.
Expect to see dewpoints fall into the 50s this afternoon, with high temperatures back to more reasonable lower 90s.
Any thunderstorms today will be confined along and south of the front over the far southeastern Big Bend.
Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A relatively dry airmass will remain in place through Saturday, which should act to significantly limit the normal diurnal convection that occurs during this time of year.
PoPs are only 20% over the far eastern parts of the area and southeast big bend and less than 20% elsewhere.
A gradual moistening trend is expected for Sunday, but still expect below average chances for afternoon convection.
Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mostly in the mid 60s to near 70, although a few lower 60s are possible tonight across the far western areas.
Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
A gradual return to typical July weather will occur during the work week with the subtropical ridge axis south of the area at first and then drifting slowly north.
Scattered convection will develop each afternoon.
Min temps will be near climo with max temps a couple of degrees above normal.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds at all terminals.
The pattern will feature typical summer conditions for the next several days with winds generally 10 knots or less.
Seas will be low as well outside of thunderstorms.
A significantly drier and slightly cooler airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a weak cold front.
Latest guidance suggests that, with expected highs around 90s degrees, humidity values in SE Alabama should remain above 30 percent, so will drop the Fire Weather Watch for today.
Elsewhere, red flag criteria will not be met through Saturday.
With river levels running at or below base flows and no widespread
heavy rain expected, flooding concerns are at a minimum.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 66 95 69 94 / 0 0 10 10 20
Panama City 90 71 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 20
Dothan 90 66 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 92 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 93 67 96 70 95 / 0 0 20 10 30
Cross City 90 69 93 69 92 / 30 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 90 69 92 70 90 / 0 0 10 10 20