NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Very little change in the fcst through tonight, as plenty of deep
tropical moisture continues to pour into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico. This has already resulted in widespread heavy rainfall
across the entire CWA, with Flash Flooding across parts of the
Radar estimates and surface observations have already confirmed some extreme amounts between 12 and 18 inches of rainfall, with additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible again tonight, with Holmes, Washington, and Bay counties being the hardest
hit thus far.
For PoPs, went above most guidance, with likely PoPs to the east and categorical values to the west from 00 to 06 UTC, and even these may not be high enough when all is said and done. Additionally, confidence is not very high on 06 to 12 UTC PoPs (which now range from 30% to the NE to 70% to the SW), and these may need to be adjusted later this evening.
SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The anomalous pattern will continue to drift westward Thursday and
begin to finally lift northeastward Friday. As has been the case
yesterday and today, the highest rainfall amounts will be over the
western parts of the forecast area, especially over the Panhandle.
The low level jet will move off to the north tomorrow, but 0-1 km
bulk shear will still be around 10-15 kts and 0-6 km bulk shear will
still be around 20-25 kts. Although the chances for severe winds
and tornadoes will be lower, they will still be possible. PWATs
will still be >2" the west, but begin to decrease to 1.8-2" to the
Unfortunately, the pattern calls for a rainy short term period on top of all of the rain we`ve already had.
LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The upper level trough extending down from the Midwest continues
to deamplify and lift to the northeast allowing the west and east
coast ridge to merge by Monday. The persistent plume of deep layer
moisture will linger over our region through Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered just east of the mid- Atlantic states with the axis extending westward through the Lower Mississippi Valley and north of our CWA.
Although a moist southeast flow will continue in the lower levels, we should see an intrusion of drier air in the mid- levels Monday through Tuesday.
Deep layer moisture may return on Wednesday as a tropical wave moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. PoPs will be tapered from likely (60-70%) west to mid range chance (40%) east on Sunday. Mid Range chance (40%) on Monday.
Below climo PoPs (20-40%) for Tuesday with seasonal PoPs returning on Wednesday (40-50%).
Max temps will be around 90 degrees with min temps in the lower 70s.
Unfortunately, due to the heavy rainfall mentioned above (which is usually accompanied by periodic Low Vis and fairly persistent Low Cigs), a very pessimistic Taf fcst is in store for the Terminals through the period with little change expected.
Although VFR conditions will be observed from time to time, MVFR and IFR levels will clearly dominate at most of the terminals.
Weak low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico and higher
pressure to the east causing a tight pressure gradient and high
winds and surf.
Low shifting westward and north slowly still, so conditions will improve through the weekend.
Small craft advisory over eastern waters ends late tonight but continues for our western waters until Friday afternoon.
No fire weather concerns.
The flash flood threat continues across the entire area today,
although it is greatest across the Florida Panhandle and more
marginal the farther east one goes.
Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible through Saturday across portions of the Panhandle.
Elsewhere, 3 to 5 inches of additional rain is expected across southeast Alabama, and 1 to 3 inches is expected elsewhere.
There is still a threat of localized amounts that are close to double these values, although the greatest threat for major flash flooding is across the Florida Panhandle.
In terms of rivers, the St. Marks near Newport has risen to moderate
flood stage and is expected to continue a gradual rise on a broad
crest to 9.4 feet, or moderate flooding. The Aucilla River near
Lamont is expected to reach minor flood stage in several days.
The Choctawhatchee River is expected to eventually reach minor flood
stage at Caryville and Newton and moderate flood stage at Bruce.
The Apalachicola River at Blounstown is also forecast to rise to
minor flooding through the weekend.
We will also need to keep an eye on the Shoal River at Mossy Head as heavy rainfall expected in Walton county today could potentially push that river into flood stage as well.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 71 87 72 89 / 80 60 60 40 60
Panama City 79 75 85 75 86 /100 80 80 50 60
Dothan 75 72 85 72 87 /100 80 90 40 60
Albany 83 72 87 72 89 / 60 60 70 40 50
Valdosta 89 72 89 71 89 / 80 60 60 30 50
Cross City 88 72 89 72 90 / 60 60 60 40 50
Apalachicola 80 74 86 76 87 /100 70 60 50 60
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf -Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes -Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin- Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla- Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison- South Walton-Washington.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Friday for Coastal Bay-South Walton.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS through 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Walton.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening for Coffee-Dale-
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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