Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Dewpoints have mixed down into the upper 50s as of 18Z across much of the interior portions of our forecast area, except the far east. In fact, the deeper low-level moisture seems to be situated at least 30mi north and east of our forecast area, and if that trend holds we will probably not see many showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. We may amend the forecast shortly to remove any mention of showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening if that continues. Otherwise, we expect increasing high clouds tonight, but dry weather with lows around 70 degrees.
Short Term [Friday Through Sunday]...
Our recent run of unusually dry weather will gradually come to an end this weekend as a fairly high-amplitude 500 mb trough develops over the Ohio Valley, and extends southward to the central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a frontal system (remnants of the cold front that moved through our region Monday night) will meander across our forecast area. The GFS and ECMWF do not forecast a uniform, robust return of deep layer moisture, as both models indicate a substantially drier airmass will remain across much of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through into this weekend.
In GA and AL for Friday & Saturday, the combination of sufficient deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing yields near- average PoPs- in the 30-40% range, but only 20-30% in FL.
On Sunday we expect a more uniform PoP distribution for our whole region, in the 40-60% range.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 90s, "cooling" to lower 90s Sunday with more clouds. Lows will be in the 70s.
Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...
The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This, along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries.
Temperatures will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the 70s.
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, with increasing high clouds expected to be the most significant change. Winds will be light and variable.
Typically low summertime winds and seas will continue through this weekend as the surface pressure gradient will be very weak. Winds will generally be from the south at 10 KT or less with seas 2 ft or less, except for slightly higher values near the coast each afternoon and early evening due to daytime heating.
With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several days, no fire weather concerns are expected.
With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next week.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 94 70 94 72 / 0 10 10 30 20
Panama City 73 89 75 89 75 / 0 10 10 30 20
Dothan 69 91 71 90 72 / 10 20 20 40 30
Albany 70 92 72 92 73 / 20 30 20 40 30
Valdosta 69 93 70 93 72 / 20 30 10 40 20
Cross City 69 93 69 93 72 / 20 20 10 30 20
Apalachicola 71 88 75 89 75 / 10 10 10 30 20