NEAR TERM [Today]...
The nation remains essentially bisected with a mid/upper level ridge
centered over the Southwest, and a closed low centered over the
Great Lakes, with a trough axis extending southeast through the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys.
The surface pattern remains much more complex, with a broad area of low pressure covering the same area as the upper trough, with a closed surface low depicted on the 05z subjective analysis over ern TX/wrn LA.
On either side of the larger area of low pressure, high pressure is nosing into the Mississippi Valley, as well as down the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Southeast U.S. coastlines. A few surface boundaries are noted throughout the Southeast, with the most organized front associated with the Low in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Locally, a weak surface trough kept showers lingering late into the
night across south-central Georgia. This likely created some rural
flooding issues, primarily for Tift, Irwin, and Ben Hill counties.
All showers associated with this trough have since diminished.
A fairly potent shortwave trough is rotating around the large scale
trough axis early this morning, resulting in the aforementioned
surface cyclogenesis near LA. Additionally, along a hybrid
developing warm/coastal front, isentropic ascent aided by the upper
forcing has initiated some light shower development across southern
Alabama. Expect these rain showers to spread east overnight, with a
slight chance for a few insignificant showers to impact our SE
Alabama counties closer to dawn.
Through the day, the upper shortwave will become detached from the parent low/trough and gradually weaken as it overspreads the Gulf Coast. This will have a similar effect on the surface low which is anticipated to open back up into a surface trough as it approaches our westernmost Florida and Alabama counties.
The combined forcing from the trough, isentropic ascent, and weakening shortwave will likely result in widespread shower and thunderstorm development along and west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers later this afternoon.
To the east, convergent flow between the aforementioned surface ridge and the approaching low will result in early shower development along the Suwannee River Valley, likely becoming more widespread later in the day with the interaction of the east coast sea breeze.
The threat for severe weather remains low, with the best threat being near the Suwannee River Valley once the east coast sea breeze
interacts with afternoon storms. The primary threat in this area will be gusty thunderstorm winds.
To the west, limited diurnal heating due to expected plentiful cloud cover will likely limit the instability with developing/approaching thunderstorms. Should sufficient instability exist the threat for severe weather will be marginal with the primary threat again being strong winds.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
The short wave will slip across the forecast area overnight.
The drier air that was over the western zones on Friday will slide to
our eastern zones, so we will see a reversal in the PoP trend with
scattered convection across the west and more isolated activity to
Drier air will then work its way back into our northwestern zones on Sunday along with DNVA in the wake of the short wave.
We will see only isolated convection across Southeast AL with scattered activity further east.
The drying trend will continue into Monday with below average PoPs everywhere by that time.
Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday and a couple of degrees above normal on Monday.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The extended period may actually begin with a brief period of Upper Level ridging lingering through much of the day on Tuesday, before this relatively hot and dry ridge retrogrades back into TX.
This will allow the all too familiar Upper Level trough to become
reestablished down the eastern seaboard, spelling a likely return
to above normal PoPs and QPF across the CWA for much of the
Thus far, guidance temps are coming in quite warm, but have a feeling Max temps may need to be reduced over time depending on how unsettled conditions become.
Patchy MVFR fog is possible this morning at KABY and KVLD where a decent amount of rain fell over the past 24 hours.
Otherwise, with the exception of some early MVFR ceilings at KECP, today will feature VFR conditions under cloudy skies, with the potential for rain greatest at KDHN and KECP.
There is a possibility for some MVFR ceilings to spread into these areas late in the day.
A ridge of high pressure will remain south of the waters keeping our
winds generally out of the west or southwest at 10 knots or less.
No headlines are anticipated.
Red Flag conditions are not anticipated in the foreseeable future.
There were still several river forecast points lingering in either action stage or minor flood stage.
However, additional rainfall this weekend is not likely to be widespread and heavy enough to dramatically increase local river flows (even though isolated heavy rainfall amounts are possible).
The most up-to-date, specific river forecast information can be found on our local AHPS page at the address listed below.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 72 91 71 94 / 40 30 30 20 20
Panama City 86 74 88 75 91 / 30 40 30 20 20
Dothan 87 72 91 72 94 / 50 40 20 10 10
Albany 89 71 92 71 95 / 20 40 30 20 20
Valdosta 91 71 91 69 93 / 40 20 40 30 30
Cross City 89 72 90 69 92 / 40 20 40 30 30
Apalachicola 86 74 88 73 89 / 30 40 40 20 20