Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Similar to the last two days, the forecast area remains sandwiched between two upper level ridges with little in the way of synoptic scale flow. This will make the sea breeze circulation the main driver for convection once again today.
One subtle change for today is that the 1000-700 mb mean wind is expected to have more of a westerly component instead of southwest like the last couple of days. This may act to shift the main axis of scattered afternoon convection a county or two southward with the highest coverage expected to be across Florida.
It would not be surprising to see a few of the storms become stronger today (and mainly in the Florida panhandle) than in recent days, although the probability of severe storms still seems rather low overall for this afternoon (~5% or less within 25 miles of a point).
Afternoon high temperatures may actually be warmer across the northern counties than the southern counties this afternoon due to less of a chance of afternoon convection across the north.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
For Sunday, the forecast area will remain in a col region between upper ridges to east and west, and a trough to the north. The sea breeze will continue to provide the primary forcing.
However, with the low-level flow generally out of the west and a slight decrease in deep layer moisture, expect coverage to be lower than on Saturday.
With less convection and clouds, temperatures will be able to rise into the mid to upper 90s, especially across interior areas. With dewpoints holding in the lower to mid 70s, this will likely push apparent temperatures to near 105 Sunday afternoon.
By Monday, the eastern U.S. trough is forecast to amplify and drive a cold front southward towards the Gulf Coast. Expect to see convection focus along the front across central Alabama/Georgia during the early to mid afternoon, with the activity pushing south into Florida by late afternoon.
Long Term [Monday night Through Saturday]...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify considerably at the start of the period as a large trough moves through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States.
For several runs now, the models have all indicated the surface cold front making it through most if not all of our forecast area by Tuesday.
Thus, expect a couple of days of below normal temps with little or no rain chances.
The bulk of the colder air should remain confined in the Tennessee Valley and areas to the north though Wednesday and Thursday morning lows will drop into the 60s across Srn Alabama/Georgia.
By Thursday, the pattern stalls or even retrogrades slightly with the 500 mb trough axis aligned from the Southern Appalachians through our forecast area.
As deep layer moisture begins to increase on Thursday, rain chances will increase.
Afternoon temperatures will still remain below normal through this portion of the long term period due to expected cloud cover, though overnight lows will return to seasonal norms.
There is a possibility of brief and patchy fog with MVFR vsbys after 09z at all sites.
VFR will return shortly after daybreak with scattered convection developing.
VCTS is included in all of the TAFs except for ABY and DHN as most of the convection this afternoon is expected to be south of those locations.
TLH has the highest probability (around 50%) of seeing convection today out of all of the TAF sites.
With the subtropical ridge stationed south of the waters, westerly to southwesterly flow will continue through early next week.
As a front approaches the Gulf Coast early in the week, winds may approach exercise caution levels Monday into Tuesday.
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days, although high dispersion values are expected Sunday afternoon across the inland Florida big bend.
Afternoon sea breezethunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 93 74 96 76 96 / 50 30 30 20 40
Panama City 89 78 91 79 90 / 50 20 40 20 30
Dothan 93 75 97 76 95 / 20 20 20 20 50
Albany 96 75 97 76 95 / 20 20 20 20 50
Valdosta 95 73 96 76 95 / 40 30 30 20 40
Cross City 91 73 94 74 93 / 40 20 50 20 20
Apalachicola 90 77 90 79 90 / 40 20 40 20 20