NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
A fairly zonal pattern at upper levels exists over the United States today, with a broad upper trough covering much of the northern half of the country and generally light flow over the South. However, a weak shortwave at upper levels currently sits over the southern Mississippi River basin, and is projected to move into northwestern parts of our region by this evening. Ahead of this feature and on the west side of the Bermuda High, moist southwesterly flow will continue through this period over our CWA, with PWAT values at or above 2" projected over much of the region.
Storm coverage may persist just a little bit longer this evening over the land areas as the weak shortwave nears the forecast area.
After midnight, offshore convection should get going and begin to
lift northward, potentially affecting the Florida Panhandle just before sunrise.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with lows generally in the lower to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...
An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the eastern states
through the next few days. As this feature develops, a series of
shortwaves is expected to move through the base of the trough and
aid in convective development over the forecast area.
It appears the the most significant of these shortwaves will impact the
region during the day on Monday, which will keep PoPs elevated.
Will have likely PoPs for most of the area, with the highest values over the northwestern zones, which will be closest to the upper energy.
Another piece of energy will move into the trough on Tuesday, with a continuation of the unsettled pattern.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The upper flow across the CONUS will be dominated by an eastern
trough and western ridge.
Through most of the extended period, the upper trough axis is forecast to be just east of the CWA, with northwest flow aloft. While this flow is typically drier across the region, the presence of a nearly stationary trough across the northern half of the area will offset this to some extent.
With this in mind, will generally keep the PoPs at or below 50 percent
through the extended, especially for Thursday into the weekend.
With the slightly lower rain chances than the past several days,
expect high temperatures to creep back into the lower to mid 90s
AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
Scattered thunderstorms should continue through the rest of the
afternoon, and could potentially impact all terminals through the
IFR or LIFR conditions are possible in the stronger storms.
Storms will likely end by 00Z Monday at ECP and TLH.
DHN, VLD, and ABY could see some showers and possibly a thunderstorm persist into the late evening.
During the early morning hours Monday, low ceilings are possible at all terminals, but most likely at DHN and ABY, where LIFR conditions could occur.
ECP could also experience some brief showers during this period.
Shortly after sunrise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage over our region through 18Z Monday.
With a persistent trough to the north and high pressure to the south, winds over the marine areas will be primarily out of the southwest to west-southwest this week.
Wind speeds will generally be between 10 and 15 knots throughout the week.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Most area rivers remain in recession with the Choctawhatchee expected to finally drop below flood stage soon at Bruce.
We are still seeing some rises on the Aucilla, Econfina, and Steinhatchee Rivers from recent heavy rainfall over the last couple of days. The Steinhatchee is out of its banks south of US 19 with minor
flooding expected downstream of the gage for the next couple of
days. The Econfina River has not quite reach bankfull and should
crest later this evening.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through much of this
week, but will not be sufficient to produce widespread flooding.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 89 73 91 74 / 40 60 40 60 50
Panama City 76 87 77 87 77 / 50 60 30 50 40
Dothan 72 89 72 92 74 / 40 70 40 60 40
Albany 72 89 73 92 74 / 40 70 40 60 40
Valdosta 71 89 73 90 72 / 40 60 40 60 40
Cross City 73 89 72 88 72 / 30 50 30 50 50
Apalachicola 77 86 76 86 77 / 50 50 30 50 40