NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An upper level low currently located over southern Nebraska will
continue to retrograde westward. At the surface current radar and
satellite loops show the center of a surface low pressure offshore
of Destin. This will continue slowly drift northwest through the
rest of the afternoon and evening. The main shower and thunderstorm activity has been associated with the northeast quadrant of the surface low, so have tweaked the PoP grids for the remaining of this afternoon to reflect this thinking.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should remain after sunset, and then be confined to over water into the early morning. Made a few other minor tweaks to the temperature grids due do the morning cloud deck more or less becoming scattered over much of our CWA.
Generally expect highs to reach the mid to upper 80s, with a few
spots possible of seeing the lower 90s. For tonight expect mostly
cloudy skies with low temperatures reaching the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper low will be centered over OK Monday morning and continue
to drift further away from the region. This will allow the big upper
high over the Midwest to ridge further into the South. This ridge
will eventually help to suppress PoPs later in the week.
However, in the short term we will be dealing with a couple of tropical waves that will move across the FL Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of
The initial wave will keep PoPs in the likely category for most of the forecast area on Monday with temps again coming in 3-5 degrees below normal. It should be noted that we are discounting the
NAM solution which actually brings a closed low across FL with
higher rain chances and marine winds. We prefer the open wave
scenario depicted by the GFS and Euro.
By Tuesday, a downward trend in PoPs will commence as we begin to come under increasing influence of the upper ridge. Max temps will be within a degree or two of normal.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
At the beginning of the period, a large 598-dm upper level high will
be centered over Indiana. This high will gradually settle southward
and eventually merge with the West Atlantic subtropical ridge by
Friday. The surface ridge axis will initially be north of the area
with a couple of tropical easterly waves passing under it across FL
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
While the ridge will suppress PoPs below seasonal levels, slight to low chance PoPs will be maintained Wednesday and Thursday to account for these waves. Max temps will actually be above normal on both of these days due to the suppressed convection.
By Friday, the surface ridge axis will slip south of the region and low to mid level winds will veer to the southwest. This will set up a typical summertime regime of sea- and land-breeze induced convection with typical summer temperatures returning as well.
A surface low pressure off the coast of Destin will move northwest, and continue to drag low level moisture up through our terminals. Recent satellite imagery loops do show low CIGS present are starting to become more scattered in nature. Therefore outside of showers and thunderstorms, all terminals should experience VFR conditions through early morning.
There is higher confidence in showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening at our western terminals. In the early morning hours before sunrise expect low IFR CIGs to develop, and gradually become VFR throughout mid-morning and the afternoon.
A weak area of low pressure will come ashore near Destin late today.
Cautionary winds have not been observed outside of thunderstorms and the headline will be removed from the forecast.
An increase in wind speed to cautionary or marginal advisory levels is expected Monday night into Tuesday night as a tropical wave passes westward across the waters.
Lighter winds are expected later in the week as high pressure settles south of the waters.
Red flag conditions are not expected through the period.
We plan to drop the flash flood watch with this afternoon`s package.
Steering flow has increased considerably since yesterday. The faster
storm motions should mitigate any large scale flood threat, although
an isolated threat continues in any areas that get training.
As far as the rivers are concerned, the Apalachicola at Blountstown
has inched back above flood stage today. Other rivers are holding
steady or in gradual recession.
Please refer to our River Forecast page for more detailed information:
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 88 73 90 72 / 50 60 30 40 20
Panama City 76 86 74 89 75 / 40 60 30 40 30
Dothan 72 87 71 90 71 / 50 60 30 40 20
Albany 72 89 72 91 72 / 50 50 20 40 20
Valdosta 73 88 72 91 71 / 50 60 30 40 20
Cross City 74 89 72 91 71 / 60 60 30 40 20
Apalachicola 77 86 75 88 75 / 40 60 30 50 30