Dothan Area Weather Forecast Jul 13

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convection is getting a rather slow start today due to abundant multi-layer clouds limiting heating over many of our FL zones. We still anticipate scattered convection developing on the sea breeze, residual outflow and boundaries along differential heating areas.

However, PoPs were nudged down slightly. Isolated storms could linger into the early evening across mainly our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones.

Overnight temps will be near seasonal levels, generally in the lower 70s.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Another day of typical scattered diurnal convection is expected on Monday before some changes arrive on Tuesday as a strong upper level trough drives a cold front into the area.

Convection is expected to be more widespread on Tuesday with likely PoPs forecast across most of the area. A few strong to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon given CAPE values forecast around 2500 j/kg and the presence of the frontal boundary with marginally damaging wind the main threat.

Temperatures will be near their seasonal averages.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

A weakening frontal boundary is expected to be in the area at the start of the period with above average PoPs as a rather deep upper level trough for July standards stretches from the Great Lakes to the Gulf coast.

This trough will lift out on Thursday with a return to more typical scattered diurnal convection through the period.

Temperatures will be near their seasonal averages.

Aviation...

MVFR cigs persist at DHN, but have scattered out elsewhere.
Another round of IFR cigs is possible tonight, although the exact locations of those cigs are uncertain at this time.
Scattered afternoon convection is expected once again.
The greatest likelihood of a storm occurring at a terminal would be at TLH with descending chances at VLD, ECP, DHN and ABY in roughly that order.

Marine...

Expect light onshore winds and low seas outside of thunderstorms through Monday.
A cold front will approach from the north on Tuesday and linger into mid week. Winds will shift to the west and increase a bit during this time along with some increase in seas.

Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels this week.
No red flag conditions are expected.

Hydrology...

The overall flood threat is low over the next few days.
Rivers continue to run well below flood stage.
As on most summer days, brief localized flooding is possible in areas with slow moving thunderstorms.
However, large scale flooding is not expected.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 72 93 74 91 73 / 10 40 20 60 50
Panama City 76 89 76 89 76 / 10 30 30 60 50
Dothan 72 93 73 92 72 / 20 40 20 70 40
Albany 73 94 73 92 72 / 20 30 20 70 50
Valdosta 71 94 72 92 71 / 20 40 20 60 50
Cross City 72 92 72 90 73 / 30 40 30 50 50
Apalachicola 75 89 76 89 76 / 10 30 30 60 50

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


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