Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Scattered convection is increasing and will continue to do so through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be suppressed after sunset with only 20-30% PoPs overnight.
Lows will be seasonal in the low 70s.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A strong upper level trough will begin to dig into the Great Lakes region during the short term, but its effects on our weather should hold off until at least Tuesday.
In the meantime, the deep layer flow will remain weak across the area with daytime heating and the sea breeze playing the biggest factors in our convective chances.
Afternoon PoPs are forecast to be fairly typical in the 30-50% range with seasonal temperatures.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The beginning of the period will feature an anomalously deep upper level trough extending from the the Great Lakes states southward to the TN Valley. This will push a cold front into our area late on Tuesday into Wednesday with an increased chance of convection.
Some differences emerge in the guidance after Wednesday with some guidance showing the front moving all the way through with drier air moving in, while other guidance shows less of a dry push.
Although the trough is unusually deep for July standards, it would be pretty rare to see a cold frontal passage in July and am a bit skeptical of the more aggressive guidance, so will keep some chance of convection going through the period.
Mainly seasonal temperatures are forecast, although Wednesday night could be cooler across the northern counties if the more aggressive guidance ends up being correct.
VFR conditions will prevail today with brief MVFR possible with afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms.
Possible fog with MVFR conditions Sunday morning at DHN and VLD.
Expect light winds, low seas the next few days away from thunderstorms.
Ahead of the cold front that will approach from the north next week, wind and seas will show some increase beginning Tuesday.
No red flag conditions for the next several days.
The overall flood threat is low over the next few days. Rivers continue to run well below flood stage.
As on most summer days, brief localized flooding is possible in areas with slow moving thunderstorms. However, large scale flooding is not expected.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 50 20 40 20
Panama City 75 89 76 90 76 / 20 40 20 30 20
Dothan 73 93 73 94 73 / 20 40 20 40 20
Albany 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 40 20 40 20
Valdosta 71 95 71 96 72 / 30 40 20 40 20
Cross City 71 92 72 92 72 / 30 40 20 40 20
Apalachicola 73 89 75 90 76 / 20 40 20 30 20