Near Term [Through Today]...
Land breezes combined with several boundaries will generate strong storm over the Gulf waters and some immediate coasts to start the day.
Otherwise, 04Z surface analysis shows a stationary front to our north and a broad area of weak high pressure over the Gulf states. With high pressure at the surface and aloft as well, the seabreeze circulation will be the main focus for today`s weather.
Model soundings are showing 1000-700mb flow from the east at less than 10 knots, which is our seabreeze regime 2. This pattern generally features the highest chances for rain in north Florida, with convection focusing along the coast.
PoPs for today reflect this, but also take into account the east coast seabreeze reaching our eastern zones in the late afternoon.
Highs today will be in the low 90s.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Tonight through Sunday...
The Srn end of Ern trough will lift Newd from NE Gulf region to be replaced by H5 ridge that will stretch from the Srn plains to the Gulf Coast and by ridge extending WWD from Atlc.
At surface, diffuse stationary front across Cntrl GA will weaken as MID-Atlc high builds down Appalachians while Bermuda high pressure centered well to the east over the Atlantic builds WWD dominating the region. This allows for weak sly flow keeping PWATs around 2 inches.
Absent upper dynamics, precip will be aftn seabreeze driven then decrease after sunset as rain-cooled boundary layer stabilizes the atmosphere.
Expect a 20% chance of rain this evening into the morning followed by a 30-50% NW-SE POP gradient in aftn.
Light steering flow allows Gulf seabreeze to move inland inviting boundary/outflow clashes and locally heavy rain. Heating will destabilize airmass and a few aftn storms may be strong (with gusty winds and ample lightning) to isold pulse severe.
Expect lows in the low 70s...highs in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices rising to around 100 degrees most sites..a little higher Ern most counties.
Sunday Night through Monday...
Mid/upper ridge builds Ewd further eroding/lifting Srn end of trough with little change in lower levels. Steering flow veers to SW and modestly increases with later starting storms. PWATs remain around 2 inches.
With less dynamics, less chance for strong to severe storms.
For Sun night will go with 10-30% W-E mainly evening POPs, then 30-40% POPs in the aftn.
Expect lows in the low-mid 70s, highs from low 90s FL coastal counties to mid 90S elsewhere with max heat indices 100 to 105 degrees.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...
Next week will be a period of transition as a broad trough associated with an anomalously deep upper level low digs across the eastern U.S.
This will push another cold front through the southeast U.S.
Depending on model choice, the front may not make it quite through our region, or could possibly sweep through our area with drier air punching into northern Florida toward the end of the week.
The latter scenario would be extremely rare for July, but would not rule that possibility out due to the strong temperature and height anomalies associated with this mid-summer system.
At any rate as the trough digs and the front approaches the southeast U.S., we should see a couple of days, probably Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms before returning to more seasonable convection.
After reduced vsbys and low cigs clear out this morning, VFR is expected to prevail through the period.
Brief MVFR conditions will be possible again this afternoon with seabreeze thunderstorms, with higher chances at ECP and TLH.
Winds from the east and southeast around or below 10 knots today, with light to calm winds overnight tonight.
Expect light winds and low seas for the next several days.
Ahead of the cold front that will approach from the north next week, wind and seas will show some increase beginning Tuesday.
We will see relative humidity values typical of summertime through mid-next week.
After a frontal passage next Thursday, relative humidity values will drop, but at this time are expected to remain above critical thresholds.
Red flag conditions are not expected.
The overall flood threat is low over the next few days.
Rivers continue to run well below flood stage.
As on most summer days, brief localized flooding is possible in areas with slow moving thunderstorms. However, large scale flooding is not expected.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 91 73 93 73 93 / 50 20 40 20 40
Panama City 88 75 89 77 88 / 50 20 30 10 40
Dothan 93 73 94 74 95 / 30 20 30 10 40
Albany 92 72 93 74 94 / 30 20 30 10 30
Valdosta 93 71 94 72 95 / 50 30 50 20 40
Cross City 91 71 92 72 91 / 50 30 40 20 40
Apalachicola 87 73 88 75 88 / 50 20 30 20 40