NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure centered across Central Mississippi will move
eastward overnight and approach the Carolina Coast by daybreak.
While the high will not settle directly over our region, it will likely be close enough to allow for winds to go near calm just after sunset.
The combination of this and the very dry airmass in place should promote good radiational cooling through much of the overnight hours.
The only potential negative in this situation is the considerable amount of upper level cloud cover, though it is a rather thin layer.
With conditions not being especially ideal, it appears that the MOS guidance is too cool, with temperatures in the mid teens.
However, with the airmass so dry, and temperatures not even above freezing in some locations at 3 pm this afternoon, felt it was best to split the difference between the cooler MOS values and warmer raw model fields.
The net result is an overnight temperature forecast with lows generally in the upper teens in the normally colder inland locations from Southeast Alabama down into parts of the Florida Big Bend and warmer values near the coast.
Even though locations right along the immediate coast will be above hard freezing criteria, areas just inland a couple of miles (still within our coastal zone) should meet the hard freeze criteria, thus the warning has been expanded to all land zones for tonight.
Note that even though apparent temperatures will be in the mid
teens or occasionally lower, the expectation is that surface wind
speeds will be less than 5 mph, thus a wind chill advisory will
not be issued.
Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The warming trend will begin quickly on Wednesday as high pressure
departs into the Atlantic and the low level flow picks up more of
an easterly component.
This will also start to bring some stratus into the region late Wednesday and continuing throughout the short term period.
This cloud cover will help keep temperatures a little lower than would otherwise be expected during the afternoon hours.
With the increasing low level moisture, freezing temperatures are
not expected on Wednesday night, save for our far western areas
where it may take some time for the dry arctic airmass to
completely be modified.
Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Ridging aloft will build over Florida at the start of the long term period in response to a deep trough moving through the Central Plains.
Low level flow will shift to southerly, resulting in increasing temperatures, though still with a fair amount of cloud cover.
The next best chance of rain looks to be on Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west.
The bulk of the dynamics with this system will stay to the north, across the Great Lakes, so significant rainfall or strong storms are not anticipated at this time.
Thereafter, the models diverge on the weather at the end of the long term period, though a drier and slightly cooler pattern seems to be preferred, especially by Tuesday as high pressure begins to build across the Central Gulf.
Aviation [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds becoming northeasterly on Wednesday.
High pressure will build just north of the marine area maintaining
moderate north to northeasterly flow for the next few days.
Winds will shift to southerly ahead of the next storm system by the
Cautionary conditions are possible well offshore by Saturday.
Another dry day is in store on Wednesday with RH falling below 25%
over much of the area.
Red flag criteria that is more dependent on fuel moisture will not be met in Florida or Georgia zones, but a 4-hr duration of sub-25% RH will be met in our SE Alabama zones.
Therefore, a Red Flag Warning will be issued for those areas.
All area rivers are now below flood stage.
The next chance for rainfall is Friday night/Saturday morning.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 19 53 36 57 49 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 23 50 35 57 48 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 19 48 30 57 43 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 19 48 31 57 43 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 20 52 36 57 47 / 0 0 10 20 20
Cross City 21 57 43 66 52 / 0 0 10 20 20
Apalachicola 26 51 40 58 52 / 0 0 0 10 10
Hard Freeze Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 11
AM EST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Hard Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-
Hard Freeze Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST Tuesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM CST Wednesday for Coffee-