NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2014
The Arctic cold front continues to advance toward the Tri-state region this evening.
At 7pm cst, the front was located along a line from northwest Alabama southward to just east of New Orleans.
Sub-freezing temperatures were already noted over northern
Local radars show patches of mostly light rain west of a line from Albany to Panama City.
We can expect more rain to move into the region overnight as the cold front sweeps in from west to east.
Will bump up PoPs slightly but we still expect QPF amounts to be
All current watches and warnings associated with the cold weather will remain unchanged.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...
Arctic front will race across the region tonight, reaching SE Alabama around 10pm cst and exiting the SE Big Bend by 7am est.
Very cold air will spill into the region behind the front on strong
A line of showers is expected right along the front, forced by strong low-level convergence as the arctic airmass undercuts the current moist and mild airmass.
Some light rain or sprinkles are also possible just behind the front as well.
However, freezing surface temperatures are expected to lag the
front enough to prevent any wintry precipitation.
Temperatures will fall rapidly in the wake of the front, with the
northwestern third of the forecast area falling below freezing by
sunrise, and the remainder of the area dropping into the 30s.
With the freezing temperatures and strong winds Monday morning,
apparent temperatures will drop below 20 degrees for several hours
for the northwestern third, necessitating a Wind Chill Advisory (in
addition to the Freeze Warning).
Afternoon highs will range from near freezing in the north to the mid 40s in the southeastern Big Bend.
A very cold night is on tap for Monday night, as the arctic airmass settles in and H85 temps drop well below zero.
Tuesday morning lows are a blend of the raw and statistical guidance, with minimums in the teens for entire forecast area.
Wind Chill will be of particular concern as winds stay above 10 mph throughout the night.
Minimum apparent temperatures in the single digits are
anticipated everywhere around sunrise on Tuesday, with values
approaching 0 along the northern boundary of the forecast area.
These values still support the ongoing Wind Chill Watch for SE Alabama and portions of SW Georgia.
The decision on an upgrade to a Wind Chill Warning will be made overnight or on Monday.
Cold temperatures will continue through the day on Tuesday into
The raw guidance is generally colder with afternoon max temperatures higher than the statistical guidance.
Have leaned towards the colder end given the strength of the airmass and the low sun angle of early January.
Much of SE Alabama and SW Georgia will remain below freezing all day, with most of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend only reaching the mid 30s.
This will likely be the coldest day for the region since 1996.
Another hard freeze appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the arctic high tracks trough central Georgia and then into the Carolina Piedmont by 12Z on Tuesday. The degree of decoupling and
the potential for any high clouds will have a large impact on temperatures for Wednesday morning, where radiational cooling will
be the driving force.
At this time, have upper teens for most of the area.
However, areas that decouple for most of the night could see temperatures several degrees lower.
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
As an upper level trough lifts up the NErn CONUS, the Arctic airmass will shift northeastward and allow the slow return of warmer, moist air to the region.
By the end of the week, two shortwave impulses will propagate through the upper level longwave pattern.
On Thursday, the first impulse will increase moisture and rain chances (30-40%) in our southeastern zones.
The second impulse will deepen more and is forecast to develop a cold front that will move through the area Saturday and Sunday (rain chances 30-50%).
Highs Wednesday will still be in the 40s and 50s and lows Wednesday night will still hover around freezing in our northwestern zones.
Daytime temperatures across the area will warm to the 60s again by Friday and may even reach the low 70s in some of our southeastern zones ahead of the next cold front.
After a brief period of VFR at a few spots early in the period, most terminals will have MVFR ceilings for the overnight hours until a strong cold front scatters out the clouds as early as 08z at DHN and as late as 14z at Valdosta.
Northwest winds will veer to the north and be quite gusty behind the front.
Strong winds with frequent gusts to near gale force will develop early Monday morning in the wake of an arctic front.
The gale conditions should diminish by Monday evening.
However, Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early Tuesday.
Moderate northeasterly flow will then continue through the end of the week.
A strong cold front crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon will sweep across the forecast area tonight into Monday
It will be quite windy behind the front on Monday, but RH will not drop low enough for any red flag concerns.
As the center of the arctic airmass approaches the forecast area on Tuesday, much drier air will accompany it.
Dew points will drop to zero or even slightly below.
Minimum RH will be in the 18-25% range.
However, winds will drop off significantly and this will prevent us from reaching red flag criteria in any of the three states we serve.
Fuel moisture levels would need to drop considerably for red flag criteria to be realized in GA or FL with these lighter winds.
Only the Apalachicola River at Blountstown and the Choctawhatchee
River near Bruce are in minor flood stage.
Bruce is expected to hover near the flood stage threshold for most of today, falling below flood stage overnight.
Blountstown is falling, but is forecast to remain in minor flood stage through Tuesday morning.
Detailed stage information pertaining to the above, and all area
rivers can be found at the following link:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 43 43 19 36 18 / 50 20 0 0 0
Panama City 39 41 23 36 25 / 50 10 0 0 0
Dothan 29 35 15 31 18 / 50 10 0 0 0
Albany 36 37 15 31 17 / 50 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 47 47 18 35 18 / 40 30 0 0 0
Cross City 59 59 19 40 19 / 30 30 0 0 0
Apalachicola 45 45 24 38 26 / 50 20 0 0 0
Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ Monday to Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton.
Hard Freeze Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM CST Tuesday for
Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-Washington.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to Noon CST Monday for Central Walton-
Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CST Monday for Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Walton.
Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to Noon EST Tuesday for Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Grady-Irwin- Lanier-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
Wind Chill Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner-Worth.
Hard Freeze Warning from 5 PM Monday to 2 PM EST Tuesday for
Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for Baker-Calhoun-
Wind Chill Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EST Monday for Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell.
Wind Chill Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
Hard Freeze Warning from 4 PM Monday to 1 PM CST Tuesday for
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to Noon CST Monday for Coffee-Dale-
Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CST Monday for Coffee-Dale-
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal
waters from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters
from Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.