NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2014
NEAR TERM [Rest of Today]...
Not much change to the inherited forecast, which was generally
tracking observed conditions this morning quite well so far.
The stratus has been stubborn in the western and northern sections of our forecast area, so sky cover was bumped up in those areas with
maximum temperatures lowered a few degrees.
In the western and northern portions of our area, highs should be 50-55 degrees, with warmer weather in the Florida Big Bend (highs 58-64 degrees).
Models were in good agreement for some light showers offshore west of Apalachicola, so some isolated showers were added to the marine forecast in those areas.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday night]...
The main story is the approaching Arctic cold front which will move
through the area Sunday night/early Monday and usher in the coldest
airmass of the season by far.
Ahead of the front, scattered showers are expected across the area on Sunday and Sunday night, but amounts will likely be light and this is of little consequence compared to the cold airmass that will advect into the area behind the front.
Temperatures will plunge behind the front on Sunday night into
Temperatures will likely not rise much at all during the day on Monday, and in fact will be falling for most of the day across the area.
Then on Monday night, all guidance is in agreement on an
advection hard freeze across the entire area with temperatures
dropping into the mid to upper teens across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia and upper teens to mid 20s across northwest
Winds around 10 mph on Monday night will allow wind chills to drop into the mid single digits across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia and the upper single digits to mid teens across northwest Florida. There is really not that much spread in the guidance on this general scenario, so confidence is fairly high.
As an example, the wind chill for 6 am Tuesday morning in Dothan ranges from -6 to +10 degrees with likely readings at or below 0.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Friday]...
The Arctic airmass will continue across the area on Tuesday with
highs struggling to reach the mid 30s across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia, and perhaps reaching 40 from Tallahassee
Another hard freeze looks to be in the cards for Tuesday night.
By Wednesday afternoon, the arctic blast will come to an end as
southeasterly flow returns to the region increasing moisture levels.
Rain chances will return by Friday ahead of a weak impulse moving through the Tennessee Valley.
Thereafter, deep layer ridging appears to build in across Southern Florida, which should further result in improving temperatures through the latter part of the long term period.
VFR conditions should prevail across the terminals through the rest of tonight and through the daylight hours on Saturday, with the lone exception of a possible period of MVFR Cigs around sunrise at VLD as low level moisture begins to gradually return from the east.
The greater concern will be during the overnight hours of Sat night into Sun morning, as more significant return flow moisture is likely to result in at least widespread MVFR Cigs at all of the Taf Sites.
Moderate easterly flow will prevail today into Sunday ahead of the
next storm system.
An Arctic cold front will move quickly across the forecast area Sunday night, resulting in a period of at least advisory conditions through at least Tuesday.
There is a possibility of gale force gusts with the passage of this front, so a gale watch or warning cannot yet be ruled out for Sunday night and Monday.
With low level moisture on the increase, no fire weather concerns are expected during the next few days.
Only the Apalachicola River at Blountstown and the Choctawhatchee
River near Bruce are in minor flood stage.
Bruce is expected to hover near the flood stage threshold for most of today, falling below flood stage overnight.
Blountstown is falling, but is forecast to remain in minor flood stage through Tuesday morning.
Detailed stage information pertaining to the above, and all area rivers can be found at the following link:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 57 45 68 43 43 / 10 10 30 40 10
Panama City 56 48 67 40 42 / 0 10 30 50 0
Dothan 51 39 63 32 35 / 10 10 30 50 0
Albany 52 40 64 38 38 / 10 10 30 50 10
Valdosta 56 42 69 46 46 / 10 10 30 40 10
Cross City 64 51 73 57 57 / 10 10 30 40 10
Apalachicola 57 51 67 45 45 / 10 10 30 40 10
FL...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-
AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-