NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2014
Wintry precipitation possible Tuesday through Wednesday...
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An area of cloud cover persists this afternoon generally south of a
Dothan to Fitzgerald line.
The back edge of the clouds near Pensacola appears to be gradually eroding, and this trend is expected to continue tonight with clearing skies across the areas that are currently mostly cloudy.
With some lingering low level moisture and light winds overnight, we cannot completely discount some fog developing across portion of south-central Georgia and the Florida big bend, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the forecast at this time.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the lower 30s across the far north to lower 40s across the southeast big bend.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The large scale 500 mb pattern will continue to feature a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the west.
However, there will be just enough height rises (ahead of the next
major short wave trough) for a temporary reprieve from the cold
air that has been entrenched over our forecast area for much of
Highs will be in the lower 60s Sunday, then mid to upper 60s
Lows will be in the 40s Monday morning.
A couple of weak upper level disturbances will bring modest chance for light rain through the period, but we tried not to get too detailed given the various model differences and expected low impacts.
A strong arctic cold front (perhaps the last for a while) will move quickly southeast through our region Monday night. This will bring an abrupt end to our short thaw.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The global models are forecasting the aforementioned front to stall on Tuesday as a strong, positive tilted short wave trough (embedded within the mean 500 mb trough) approaches from the northwest.
The first forecast challenge will be the potential for some light freezing rain/sleet/rain mix Tuesday morning with some lingering moisture in Southeast AL and South GA.
This appears as a low probability/low impact event, but we will keep an eye on it.
The most challenging portion of this forecast is Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to the unusual question of precip type (for our
The 12 UTC GFS backed off on QPF a bit in our forecast area, while the 12 UTC ECMWF has more QPF than it`s previous run.
Looking at partial thicknesses, the ECMWF would support about an
inch of snow across part of our forecast area, while the GFS
solution would be more of a mix (including light rain, freezing
rain, sleet, snow).
My colleague made the interesting point that there is also an unusual discrepancy between the operational models and their ensembles.
With all of this uncertainty, we haven`t made any major changes to yesterdays forecast and are still calling for multiple precip types across much of our region.
It`s important to note that even a little bit of accumulating
ice/snow/sleet can have significant impacts to travel in the Deep
After a chilly mid week (with the potential for a hard freeze or two), there is finally good agreement among the GFS and ECMWF in a
major large scale 500 mb pattern change.
Both models forecast a long wave trough to develop over the western CONUS and a ridge over the east.
This would mean a gradual warming trend for our area and generally fair weather.
Low clouds have persisted at KECP, KTLH, and KVLD so far today, although some breaks have occasionally been noted.
MVFR cigs with occasional VFR scattered clouds are now expected to linger into late afternoon hours in these areas with clearing tonight.
Winds are also expected to diminish overnight and become variable.
Once moderate west winds subside overnight, there will be a period
of low winds and seas Sunday and Monday.
However, advisory conditions are likely Monday night through Wednesday behind a strong cold front.
Red flag conditions are unlikely at least until the middle of next week.
Area creeks and rivers are steady or falling.
No significant precipitation is expected through the forecast period.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 36 62 47 69 40 / 0 0 30 40 30
Panama City 42 61 53 68 39 / 0 0 30 30 30
Dothan 34 60 47 64 33 / 0 0 20 30 30
Albany 32 59 44 66 32 / 0 0 20 30 20
Valdosta 35 61 46 69 39 / 0 0 30 40 30
Cross City 42 64 50 71 45 / 10 0 30 40 30
Apalachicola 41 59 53 69 44 / 10 0 30 30 30