NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Although the current fcst is essentially well on track, the forward propagation of the Sfc cold front has slowed just a touch with the light winds after sunset, and this has allowed some fog to form across the SE FL Big Bend.
However, dewpoints are finally beginning to fall in this area, so believe this will be a short lived event as the very light winds are finally swinging around to the NW over Apalachee Bay and the SE Big Bend.
In the wake of the departing cold front, a surface ridge will build into the region tonight, causing winds to become calm under clear skies.
This is usually a recipe for a fairly chilly night, but that should be counteracted somewhat by low-level WAA overnight just above the near-surface layer.
Model consensus has 925-850mb temps increasing from around +6C to +10C by 12z Monday.
Therefore, the expectation is that we should just barely avoid a freeze in most locations.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper level pattern will briefly deamplify on Monday in between
short wave troughs with temps a few degrees above seasonal levels.
Temps will be near climo Monday night and Tuesday.
The next short wave in the series will reach the base of the larger scale trough by around 00z Wednesday.
The associated cold front will sweep across the forecast area on Tuesday with little fanfare aside from some isolated showers near the coast.
Another surge of cold air will follow this front with a widespread freeze forecast for Tuesday night all the way to the coast.
Areas north of I-10 could see a hard freeze.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The long wave trough will persist across the eastern U.S. through
This means we will continue to see a parade of cold fronts sweeping across the area in such rapid succession that there will not be enough time between fronts for much of a return of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico to become established.
Therefore PoPs will be 10% or less through Friday with temperatures well below normal.
Light freezes are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday nights.
Model discrepancies remain at this time with respect to the forecast for Friday night and Saturday due primarily to differences in the strength of a Pacific short wave trough moving into the base of the larger scale trough across the Gulf Coast states, and the surface response to that wave.
Both the 12z GFS and 00z Euro develop a low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
The Euro is deeper with the system and quicker to bring it eastward at a more northerly latitude than the GFS.
Therefore, the Euro paints a more pessimistic forecast.
A guidance blended forecast gives low chance PoPs for this event.
VFR expected with clear skies.
Winds will be light and variable or calm overnight becoming light from the west on Monday.
Seven-foot season are being reported at buoy 42039 and our wave
model indicates they are likely still that high in the nearshore
Panhandle legs too.
Will leave the advisory in place for the western legs Sunday afternoon but drop it further east where neither observations nor the model support it.
Winds will subside behind today`s cold front, with seas to follow,
as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The lull will be short-lived as westerly winds increase ahead of the next front, which should sweep across the waters on Tuesday.
Look for winds to increase to small craft advisory levels behind this front Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Winds will drop below headline criteria on Wednesday as another area of high pressure moves in.
The next cold frontal passage will occur Thursday night and briefly increase winds to near advisory levels once again.
Despite a relatively dry air mass persisting into the next work week and being reinforced by another cold front on Tuesday, red flag conditions are not expected (RH not low enough).
The Apalachicola River near Blountstown remains in minor flood stage until Monday afternoon.
Other area rivers are in action stage, but are not forecast to reach flood stage..
No significant rainfall is expected through the forecast period.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 33 66 41 63 27 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 41 65 49 61 30 / 0 0 10 20 0
Dothan 34 65 40 55 25 / 0 0 10 10 0
Albany 32 65 38 57 24 / 0 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 33 66 40 61 26 / 0 0 0 10 0
Cross City 36 66 41 67 27 / 0 0 10 20 10
Apalachicola 40 63 49 65 29 / 0 0 10 20 0