NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2014
NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Very few changes were made to the forecast for today.
As is common for shallow, cold air masses, the temperatures have been slow to warm for the first few hours of the morning with limited mixing.
We decreased temperatures slightly through 16-17z, but high
temperatures (around 20-21z) remain roughly the same.
It should be a sunny, cool day overall.
The strong cold air advection early this morning will abate
quickly as the coldest portion of the airmass races eastward and
surface winds subside. However, an inversion near 3,000 ft will
limit vertical mixing, helping to hold high temperatures to below
average values in the lower to mid 50s (despite ample sunshine).
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The next in the series of strong upper level shortwaves embedded
in the mean longwave trough will cross the area late tonight into
Some of the guidance, especially the hi-res guidance, is hinting at slightly more moisture compared to the last couple of shortwaves, and a few showers appear possible across the area, mainly during the morning hours.
These should be mostly light and brief with amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch where it does manage to rain.
PoPs range from only 10 percent across the far north to up to 40 percent near Apalachicola and across the coastal waters.
Seasonal high temperatures are expected on Sunday and Monday with lows on Sunday night slightly below average in the low to mid 30s.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Monday looks to be slightly warmer than Sunday, before a stronger
cold front arrives on Tuesday. The ECMWF, GEM, and GFS all seem
relatively consistent with this now.
The cold front currently looks to be precipitation free, with below normal temperatures thereafter from Wednesday to Friday given a large eastern US trough and possibly a reinforcing cold front by late in the week.
Unrestricted Vis and cigs are expected through the period, though high clouds will begin to develop late tonight.
Winds will gradually veer during the day from NW to W, with speeds
generally from 5 to 7 KT.
We have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory as the winds even at
the offshore buoys have fallen below 15 knots and seas have fallen
just below 7 feet now.
We will include a SCEC headline for seas on this CWF issuance, but that will probably be able to be removed by mid-afternoon.
This reprieve will be short lived though as another cold front moves
through the area on Sunday, bringing with it a return to advisory
Some of the latest NWP guidance hasn`t initialized how dry this
airmass really is, so we relied heavily on the latest 2.5km gridded LAMP, ECMWF MOS, and 00 UTC WRF for our dewpoint forecast.
This blend gives us dewpoints of around 10 deg today, which is close to the current observed dewpoints.
Our RH forecast is now just dry enough for a Red Flag Warning for our Southeast AL counties.
The airmass will be considerably more humid on Sunday, with no fire weather "concerns".
The Apalachicola River near Blountstown reached a broad crest of
16.8 feet on Friday evening and is forecast to remain in minor flood stage until Sunday.
A couple of other area rivers are in action stage, but they are not forecast to reach flood stage.
No significant rainfall is expected through the forecast period.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 52 34 64 33 67 / 0 10 30 0 0
Panama City 53 45 63 40 65 / 0 20 30 0 0
Dothan 54 36 59 34 66 / 0 20 20 0 0
Albany 53 33 59 32 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 52 32 62 33 65 / 0 0 20 0 0
Cross City 54 31 66 33 67 / 0 0 30 10 0
Apalachicola 52 43 64 38 64 / 0 10 40 0 0
AL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.