Dothan Area Weather Forecast Friday July 12

Near Term [Today]...

An Unseasonably Deep Trough At Upper Levels Is Once Again Digging Southward Over The Eastern Half Of The U.S., And Will Stretch From The Great Lakes To The Northern Gulf Of Mexico By This Afternoon. Just Ahead Of This Feature, High Pwat Values (Above 2") Are Being Drawn Into Our Region From The Gulf. In Addition, A Stationary Front Near Our Cwa Will Provide Enough Forcing To Enhance Precipitation Chances Through The Period.

With Daytime Heating And As The Front Sags Southward Into Our Region Later Today, Showers And Thunderstorms Will Increase In Coverage. Cam Models And The Hrrr Both Show Convection Developing By The Late Morning Hours In The Big Bend Region And Into South Central Georgia, And Then Spreading To Other Parts Of The Cwa Later In The Afternoon. Reflected This Pattern Within The High Temperatures, Showing Low 90s In Our Nw Counties Tapering To Mid-Upper 80s In Our Se Counties, Where There Is A Higher Chance Of Precipitation.

Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

There Is Good Agreement Among The Latest Nwp Guidance In Taking The Aforementioned Mid-Upper Level Low Pressure System From Eastern Ky Tonight, To Ok By Sunday Night. As A Deep Layer Subtropical Ridge Fills In Westward Behind This Low, Moist Southeast Flow Will Develop Across Our Forecast Area. Although The Precip Water Values Are Likely To Continue Above Climatology Through The Weekend,

The Best Q-G Forcing Is Expected To Be On Saturday, Which Is When We Forecast Our Highest Pop (50-70%). With Such A Moisture-Rich Environment, Convection Could Develop Almost Anytime On Saturday.

On Sunday The Forcing For Convection Will Have To Come From Mesoscale Features (Sea Breeze And Outflow Boundary Interactions), So We Expect More Of A Diurnal Cycle To The Rain, Along With A Slightly Low Pop (40-50%). High Temperatures Will Be A Few Degrees Below Climo, Especially Saturday.

Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...

The Long Wave Pattern Will Be In Retrogression Through Much Of This Period.

An Upper Low Will Track From The Midwest To The Central Or Southern Plains (Depending On The Model You Pick) As A Ridge Pushes In From The Atlantic. Beneath This Ridge, A Tutt Will Track West Across Fl Monday Night Through Wednesday.

At The Surface, A Front Will Lift North Across The Region On Sunday With The Subtropical "Bermuda" Ridge Axis Mainly North Of The Area After That. That Will Put The Area In An Easterly Flow Regime At Lower Levels. Typical Mid Range Pops Are Expected Through The Period With Development Largely Driven By Land And Sea Breeze Circulations. Max Temps Will Be A Couple Of Degrees Below Normal With Mins Close To Normal.

Aviation [Through 06z Saturday]...

Due To The Stationary Front Stalled Just North Of Our Region, Widely
Scattered Areas Of Showers And Possibly A Thunderstorm Will Persist Through The Overnight Hours In Some Parts Of Our Region, Especially Sw Georgia. Vfr Conditions Are Expected At Most Terminals For The Rest Of The Evening,

Although Ifr Or Lifr Conditions Are Possible Where Any Low Ceilings And Fog Occur. Ceilings And Visibilities Will Likely Lower In The Early Morning Hours At All Terminals Due To The Moist Conditions And Light Winds, But Ample Cloud Cover Will Likely Prevent The Formation Of Widespread Fog.

Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Could Increase In Coverage
During The Late Morning Hours Near Tlh And Vld, And Will Be
Possible At All Terminals In The Afternoon And Early Evening. Ifr
Conditions Will Likely Occur In Any Thunderstorms, But Elsewhere
Vfr Conditions Should Persist.


The 00 Utc Nam, And To A Lesser Extent The Gfs, Forecast A Fairly
Well-Defined Cyclonic Circulation To Develop In Our Coastal Waters
Tonight And Saturday.

The Ecmwf And Sref Mean Wind Fields Have A Much More Subtle Wind Shift Associated With A Trough, Which Is The Solution Preferred For This Forecast Cycle.

This Will Keep Our Winds And Seas Below Exercise Caution Levels.

If The Nam Or Gfs Were To Verify, However, Our Wind & Seas Forecast Would Be Too Low. However, These Models (Especially The Nam) Have A Tendency To Wind Up Low Pressure Systems Too Much When There Is Warm Water.

Fire Weather...

With Moist Southerly Flow To Continue Through The Weekend, No Fire Weather Concerns Are Expected.

While Some Drier Air Is Anticipated To Return By Tuesday, Rh Values Should Still Remain Above Critical Thresholds.


All River Points That Have Been In Flood Continue To Recede, Albeit
A Little Slowly On The Lower Choctawhatchee, Where Caryville And
Bruce Will Remain At Flood Stage For Some Time.

Routed Flows From The Withlacoochee And Alapaha Rivers Are Progressing Downstream And Are Now Beginning To Initiate Rises In The Lower Portions Of These Rivers And Into The Middle Suwannee. There Is Considerable Capacity In The Suwannee Basin, So Baring Significant Rainfall, Flooding Is Not Anticipated Along The Middle Suwannee, Though Flows May Approach Action Stage By The Middle Of Next Week At Ellaville And Dowling Park. It Is Helpful That Routed Flows From The Upper Suwannee Remain Relatively Low, As The Bulk Of The Expected Rise On The Middle Suwannee Is Occurring From The Withlacoochee And Alapaha Rivers.

The Rainfall Over This Weekend Is Expected To Average Around 2 To 3 Inches, With Isolated Heavier Totals Possible. This Certainly Does Not Look To Be Like The Significant Flooding Rainfall We Saw Last Week, And As A Result, Widespread Flooding Is Not Anticipated.

However, Given The Wet Soil Conditions Across Much Of North Florida And Southern Georgia, A Couple Of Inches Of Rain In A Short Amount Of Time Could Easily Generate Localized Flooding,
Especially In An Urban Environment.

Expected Rainfall Could Keep Rivers Currently In Flood At Those Levels Well Into Next Week (Like The Choctawhatchee) And Could Result In Basins Like The Ochlockonee Or Chipola Nearing Flood Stage Depending On The Location Of The Heaviest Rains.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 87 71 88 71 90 / 70 40 60 40 50
Panama City 87 75 85 73 87 / 70 40 50 30 40
Dothan 90 72 88 72 89 / 50 30 50 30 40
Albany 89 71 87 72 90 / 60 30 60 30 50
Valdosta 89 71 90 71 94 / 70 50 70 40 50
Cross City 86 72 88 71 90 / 70 50 70 40 60
Apalachicola 86 74 84 74 87 / 70 50 60 30 50

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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