Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Clear and calm conditions this evening will once again foster the
development of fog around the area as temperatures fall quickly
after dark, particularly over the eastern FL panhandle/Big Bend.
Otherwise, a seasonably cool night is on tap with low dipping into
the lower to mid 40s inland and around 50 along the coast.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The recent large scale pattern of weak ridge Wrn and weak trough Ern
Conus yielding a relatively zonal flow highlighted by fast moving
shortwaves will begin to change on Mon.
This is attributed to a series of Srn and Nrn stream stream shortwaves phasing over Plains Mon-Mon night with further phasing over LWR MS Valley on Tues.
This will in turn develop a low amplitude shortwave trough which will
move Ewd being further strengthened by additional shortwaves thus
further slowing down...amplifying and leading to the development of
pronounced longwave trough over Ern Plains by Tues.
Some model disagreement with ECMWF more amplified showing stronger H5 flow digging into backside of longwave trough.
At surface...ridge over Nrn plains on Mon will move SEWD into Great
Lakes on Tues and to mid-Atlc states Tues eve.
This...plus passing shortwave will kick next cold front SEWD across our area during the Mon aftn and eve.
Front stalls ENE along Gulf Coast Mon night.
Meanwhile next shortwave will produce cyclogenesis and generates a weak wave on front over N/Cntrl Gulf.
At the same time... cold front stretching from low Swwd across Gulf waters.
On Tues... wave advances Newd reaching close to Pensacola Tues night with now warm front lifting Nwd over our FL counties with cold front extending Swwd from Pensacola.
Area PWATs increase from about one- half inch on Mon to 1.1-1.4 inches Tues night.
Forecast will show increasing clouds then POPs thru the period...
initially from warm front then ahead of cold front.
There exists a good chance of fog in the vicinity of the fronts.
Instability very low so not expecting any thunder.
QPF amounts too low to consider any flooding concerns.
Minimum temps will remain above freezing so any precip will be liquid.
Some fog will linger past sunrise. Increasing clouds ahead of front. 20-0% NW-SE POP gradient. Ahead of front...expect highs low to mid 60s NW to low 70s SE Big Bend.
50-10% NW-SE POP gradient. Lows in mid to upper 40s.
60-20% NW-SE POP gradient. Sharp temp gradient with frontal position. Highs from mid 50s SE AL to low to mid 70s SE Big Bend.
70-40% NW-SE POP gradient. Lows from near 40 north to around 50 south.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
ECMWF and GFS continue to differ on the timing/position of low with
the next system with former a bit more aggressive.
Best forecast at this time shows that the large scale pattern starts with full latitude longwave across Ern states with axis down W/Cntrl Gulf of Mex.
At surface...wedge sets up and slides down Appalachians bringing colder temps towards our area.
Low lifts ENE but then advancing wedge should shift track more EWD to off N/Cntrl FL coast before shifting NWD along coast at night.
Likewise...warm front lifts Nwd but wedge should slow Nwd lift, enhancing local overrunning event.
Expect a large max temp range depending on location vis a vis boundary.
Cold front races SEWD across thru eve.
Area PWATs increase to around 1.4 inches.
All this should keep more of CWFA in cool sector...decreasing chances of storms except possibly over waters and along the coasts.
Likely POPs which may be upgraded to CAT POPS with next forecast.
This event could still bring widespread rain/brief heavy rain so cannot
discount at least nuisance flooding.
Strong shortwave will cross SE region Wed night into Thurs...
By sunrise Thurs...this low has lifted well Newd to Carolina coast dragging cold front to S/Cntrl FL.
30-60% W-E POPS Wed night.
Proximity of warm boundary and wrap around moisture will keep small chance POPs east in forecast into Thus.
With enhanced wedge...some guidance shows temps approaching
freezing by sunrise at Nrn most sites so future shifts will monitor for possible wintry mix mainly nrn most GA counties.
In its wake...Ern trough moves offshore and zonal flow reestablishes
itself by Fri night.
At surface...high pressure builds in across Gulf of Mex.
Under light winds and clearing skies...sunrise temps will approach freezing by sunrise Fri at the coldest locations.
As the high moves ESE...temps should rebound Fri into the weekend
with max temps reaching the 70s on Sat.
Areas of fog will be a concern through the mid-morning hours once again with the highest probabilities around KVLD/KTLH and lesser chances around KDHN.
Any fog that develops is expected to dissipate by around 15z with VFR conditions and light winds prevailing for the rest of the day.
Very weak high pressure across the Southeast has resulted in low
winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico.
This weak pressure gradient will continue through at least Tuesday.
The GFS and ECMWF differ considerably in their respective wind forecasts beyond Tues.
Exercise caution level winds and seas Wed eve then possibly to advisory levels offshore overnight into Thurs morning as a strong cold
Winds and then seas will decrease to below headline criteria into the upcoming weekend.
Dry conditions are expected into Tuesday, before rain chances
increase by mid week with rain likely on Wednesday.
In the wake of the next front, drier conditions will return along with gusty northwest winds Thursday.
RH values are expected to remain above red flag levels.
The bulk of our next rain event will be Tuesday afternoon through
Storm total accumulations are currently projected to range from 0.50 to 2 inches.
While such values could cause an increase in flow/stage levels, the latest MMEFS (GFS-based run) only has one site getting to action stage (Thomasville, GA).
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 43 70 47 68 49 / 0 10 20 40 50
Panama City 50 64 53 65 51 / 0 10 20 50 60
Dothan 46 66 47 57 42 / 0 20 40 60 70
Albany 43 68 46 56 41 / 0 20 30 60 60
Valdosta 42 71 47 66 47 / 0 10 20 40 50
Cross City 42 72 45 73 51 / 0 0 10 20 40
Apalachicola 47 64 53 66 55 / 0 0 10 40 50