Near Term [Through Today]...
Water vapor imagery reveals a well defined upper level shortwave
traversing the Gulf coast states this morning with an area of rain
developing ahead of it.
The upper level pattern continues to be very progressive, and this rain will move quickly from west to east through the day.
The 08/00z KTAE sounding has a lot of mid-level dry air to overcome before measurable rainfall will reach the ground, although this will eventually happen.
Rainfall should come to an end across the western areas by mid-morning and across most of the eastern areas by early to mid-afternoon.
Rainfall amounts should be relatively light due to the progressive nature of the system and lack of significant deep layer moisture return.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The 500 mb flow over most of the CONUS will remain fairly zonal.
No sooner does one short wave trough exit our area (later today) when another races through late tonight and early Sunday.
However, this trough will have no deep layer moisture available, so we`ll be hard-pressed to even see an increase in clouds.
The recent parade of fast-moving troughs will halt (at least temporarily) by Monday, as a much slower-moving, positive-tilted trough develops over the Four Corners area.
A slow-moving cold front will enter our forecast area from the northwest during the day on Monday.
Weak lift and some mid level moisture will translate into slight PoPs for our northwest zones Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will be near climatology with lows in the lower to mid 40s, and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The long term pattern begins fairly deamplified with broad Ern trough over NE states yielding tight zonal flow across SE region. At the surface...strong high pressure centered over or just off N/Cntrl FL.
Locally this translates to generally WLY steering flow and warming temps.
However...models all showing this pattern rapidly shifting beginning Tues as a series of strong shortwaves over the Srn Plains on Monday eject Ewd and move across the SE region Tues night thru Wed increasingly amplifying Ern longwave trough.
However here models diverge with ECMWF stronger in developing low level feature across Wrn Gulf Coast while GFS weaker with more amorphous low or trough and non-tstm event over Gulf waters.
For now will lean towards more ominous ECMWF which generates significant cyclogenesis and causes LA low to develop and strengthen on SW-NE cold front which reaches N/Cntrl Gulf Coast Tues night with warm front stretching Ewd along coast.
Further amplification of pattern on Wed will eject low Newd across
local area...lifting warm boundary Nwd to stall over region (likely FL/AL/GA border) early Wed followed by cold front moving SEWD and across during the day.
So rain chances noticeably increase Tues aftn thru Wed with local area..especially FL/waters increasingly in warm sector.
Thus there is a chance of severe weather...depending on ultimate position of upper/lower features.
In wake of departing low/front...high noses down Ern seaboard and cooler and drier air overspread the region Thurs into Fri.
Expect increasing cloudiness with moderating temps beginning on Mon ahead of next system.
High Temps Mon mid 60s to low 70s...mid 50s to around 70 Tues...50 to 70 Wed with large gradient due to advancing front...60-68 Thurs and Fri.
Min temps will remain above freezing each night.
Will go with NIL pops Mon...30-0 NW-SE POPS Mon night... 50-20% Tues...60-30% Tues night...70-50% Wed all with N-S gradient... 30-40% Wed night then NIL POPs.
An area of generally light rain will move through the area through the early afternoon hours.
Occasional MVFR conditions are possible as this band of rain moves through.
Expect clearing conditions fairly quickly after 14/15z over the western sites with VFR conditions spreading eastward by early to mid afternoon.
Moderate northeast winds this morning will weaken to 10 KT or less
later today as a high pressure system becomes centered near the
Low winds and seas will then continue through Monday.
A progressive pattern is expected for the next several days with
occasional chances for rain.
RH values will likely remaining above red flag criteria through the middle of next week.
Much of the forecast area will get rain this morning, with totals
likely to range from a tenth to half an inch. These amounts are
unlikely to have any significant impacts on our local rivers.
The only local site that was still at "action" stage was along the
Apalachicola River at Blountstown, but this site will fall below
action state within the next day or two.
A more significant rain event is possible around the middle of the upcoming work week, though details are uncertain because of the fast nature of the current upper level weather pattern.
The WPC 5-day QPF calls for widespread values of around an inch. However, the latest GFS-based output from the MMEFS shows no major responses from the rivers with the upcoming QPF.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 63 41 71 43 70 / 100 0 0 0 10
Panama City 61 46 67 50 66 / 80 0 0 0 10
Dothan 62 40 69 45 67 / 50 0 0 0 20
Albany 62 40 69 43 67 / 80 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 61 41 70 42 70 / 100 0 0 0 10
Cross City 62 44 72 43 72 / 100 10 0 10 10
Apalachicola 62 46 65 50 65 / 100 10 0 0 10