NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2014
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The surface trough, which passed through the region early today, will dissipate this evening as high pressure north of the forecast area weakens.
With no large-scale upper forcing and limited deep moisture, dry conditions are expected overnight.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s, a few degrees above normal for this time of year.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The dry conditions won`t last long as the stalled front to our south begins to lift north as a warm front Tuesday night ahead of the next developing low pressure system along the western Gulf coast.
As the upper level trough continues to amplify across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS Wednesday through Wednesday night,
deep layer moisture with several embedded impulses will stretch
west to east along the Gulf coast ahead of a surface front pressing down from the north.
The ample moisture and lift will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with rain tapering off from north to south late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
No severe weather is expected with this system but we will have to watch for the potential for heavy rains, especially along the Florida coastal counties where 2 to 4 inches of rain fell on Sunday.
Temperatures will be above seasonal levels through Tuesday night with below climo for Wed/Wed night.
Highs Wednesday will range from mid 50s northwest to lower 60s southeast.
Min temps Wednesday night may drop at or just below the freezing mark over portions of SE AL and our GA zones.
LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
Nearly zonal flow aloft with a cool and dry airmass in place at the surface to finish out the work week.
A widespread light freeze is possible for inland areas Thursday morning.
A low amplitude shortwave will pass to our north Friday night and Saturday bringing our next chance for rain.
Upper ridging builds over the area Sunday with dry weather and warming temperatures.
Another area of low pressure and associated cold front approaches on Monday.
The 12z EURO is more progressive with this system bringing rain into the local region as early as Sunday night but especially on Monday. The slower GFS holds the rain off to our west at least through Monday.
Will split the difference and bring in slight to low end chance PoPs on Monday.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
Low clouds have now pushed south of all terminals with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the evening.
MVFR visibility and possibly IFR CIGS may reach the southern terminals overnight.
However, VFR conditions should return by mid-morning on Tuesday.
Winds and seas will remain rather low through Tuesday night as
weak high pressure remains in place over the waters.
Stronger offshore flow will develop on Wednesday in the wake of the next cold front, with conditions approaching or reaching exercise
caution Wednesday morning and advisory levels by afternoon into
Winds and seas will diminish below headline criteria by Thursday as high pressure returns.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
middle of the week.
A much drier airmass will push into the region on Thursday, with much lower relative humidity values expected.
There have been minor rises on several rivers due to rainfall Friday night and Sunday.
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is forecast to rise slightly above flood stage on Thursday.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is in minor flood and will peak
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday will result in further rises on area rivers although no significant flooding is expected.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 51 77 56 60 36 / 0 10 60 80 20
Panama City 56 74 56 60 39 / 0 20 60 80 20
Dothan 49 72 48 55 32 / 0 20 70 70 10
Albany 49 76 50 56 31 / 0 10 60 70 10
Valdosta 51 76 55 58 33 / 0 10 50 80 20
Cross City 53 77 56 63 43 / 10 10 50 80 50
Apalachicola 56 71 59 62 42 / 0 10 60 80 30