NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
528 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
We have canceled the Flash Flood Watch a couple hours early as
there has been a notable decreasing trend in rain intensity over and upstream of the Florida Panhandle.
Since about 15-16z, visible satellite has shown a southward propagating outflow boundary over the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
This boundary passed the buoys ~60NM offshore of the Panhandle coast around 20z, and convective activity has most recently been concentrated in that area (well offshore).
Therefore, we expect most of the thunderstorms and heavier rain rates to remain over the Gulf, with light to moderate rain continuing in the Florida Panhandle, and occasional light rain showers or drizzle in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
The forecast reasoning for tonight has not changed, therefore the only change to the forecast was the cancellation of the Flash Flood Watch.
As rain tapers off tonight, we may see areas of fog developing.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Broad cyclonic upper flow across the country will gradually become
more amplified over the next few days as a ridge rebuilds along the west coast and a strong shortwave dives into the northern plains.
For Monday, the upper disturbance which helped generate today`s
rainfall will slide off to the east and allow for high pressure to nudge into the region.
This should be just enough to push a slightly drier airmass into the area, helping to confine any showers or isolated thunderstorms to the immediate coast and eastern Big Bend.
With more sun, and minimal cold air advection associated with the high pressure to the north, temperatures should return to the 70s for most of the area for Monday afternoon (and again Tuesday afternoon).
Stalled frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward on Tuesday ahead of the next piece of upper energy.
Expect to see scattered showers gradually lift north during the day as well.
By Tuesday night, as the upper trough amplifies further, rain is
expected to expand ahead of the approaching cold front with likely
PoPs overspreading the forecast area.
At this time, it appears that any significant instability will remain offshore, limiting the threat for severe weather.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The amplifying upper trough will push a strong cold front through the forecast area on Wednesday, ushering in a much colder airmass.
High temperatures will fall back below seasonal normals for
Wednesday and Thursday, ranging from the upper 50s in the
northwest to the lower to mid 60s in the southeast.
May see a light freeze Thursday morning as the cold high pressure settles in over the northern Gulf Coast.
Another disturbance will approach late in the week, with another chance of rain.
Aviation...[Through 18Z Monday]
An east-west stationary front will be the focus for periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms at KECP, KTLH, and KVLD.
Lighter rain and isolated thunderstorms will affect KDHN and KABY.
Expect MVFR conditions at KDHN and KABY through 06Z, and IFR to LIFR conditions at KECP, KTLH, and KVLD.
Precipitation will gradually diminish as a weak cold front moves across the region from the northwest to the southeast between 06Z-12Z.
Dense fog will develop all terminals by 06Z-08z with IFR/LIFR conditions before improving to VFR by 18z.
Winds and seas will remain rather low through Tuesday night as
weak high pressure remains in place over the waters.
Stronger offshore flow will develop on Wednesday in the wake of a cold front, with conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory levels.
Winds and seas will diminish by Thursday as high pressure returns.
Red flag conditions are unlikely through the middle of the week.
Some drier air may move into the area by Thursday afternoon.
With the threat of training convection this afternoon, a flash flood watch was issued (now canceled) for portions of the Florida Panhandle.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches
are possible in the watch area.
In areas where heavy rainfall is expected, rivers may reach minor flood stage.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown is forecast to go slightly above flood stage Thursday but may rise faster depending on the location of heavy rain this afternoon and early tonight.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 58 75 54 74 53 / 70 30 10 30 60
Panama City 59 72 58 70 55 / 70 30 10 40 60
Dothan 54 72 51 71 47 / 50 20 10 40 60
Albany 54 72 49 73 49 / 50 10 10 30 60
Valdosta 57 73 53 74 54 / 70 30 10 30 50
Cross City 59 75 57 75 56 / 70 40 10 30 50
Apalachicola 60 70 59 69 58 / 70 30 10 30 60