NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As surface high pressure over the southeast continues to move off
the Atlantic coast today, light winds will gently shift from northeast to east and become calm around sunset.
With skies clearing earlier today over the Big Bend, temperatures have warmed faster than previously forecast. Bumped up maximum temperatures a bit with highs in the upper 60s still expected along the immediate coast and in parts of southeast Alabama, but with max temps in south central Georgia and in the Florida Big Bend in the mid 70s, upper 70s near Cross City.
With moist soil from yesterday`s rain, calm winds, and radiational
cooling tonight, patchy fog is possible tonight, and will likely develop in our Florida zones first.
Fog will begin to dissipate from west to east as rain starts to enter the forecast area tomorrow morning.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A broad upper trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to
remain in place through the next several days.
Although the upper flow along the northern Gulf coast will remain generally zonal, a series of weak disturbances will cross the region and provide enough forcing to keep the weather unsettled into Tuesday.
The first of these disturbances will cross the region on Sunday with the forecast area in the right entrance region of the upper jet.
The front which moved through the area on Friday, will lift back to the north overnight and settle in along, or near, the I-10 corridor for Sunday.
The jet dynamics, along the warm advection over the low-level boundary will provide the spark for a significant area of showers and isolated thunderstorms to spread across the area through the day.
Limited mid-level lapse rates and a relatively cool boundary layer should limit the potential for any strong storms.
However, with the upper flow parallel to the boundary, training of cells is possible during the afternoon with locally heavy rainfall possible.
Temperatures will be tricky on Sunday, depending on the eventual
position of the warm front and the coverage of the rainfall.
However, expect warmest temperatures along and south of I-10
(lower 70s), with lower to mid 60s for much of SE Alabama and SW
By Monday, the surface boundary is forecast to dissipate, limiting
the low-level forcing for rain.
However, with the area still under a somewhat favorable quadrant of the upper jet, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible.
With mid-level 50 knot flow, reasonably steep lapse rates (around 6.5 C/km), and a warmer boundary layer (highs in the mid 70s), a few strong storms cannot be ruled out on Monday, with hail being the primary hazard.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
A cold front will move through Wednesday with a chance of showers
Behind the front high pressure will build in bringing colder temperatures and drier air.
The models differ with a series of low pressure systems toward the end of the upcoming week.
The GFS has precipitation moving across central Florida Friday and a low developing off the East coast near Georgia and South Carolina
followed by another low forming over Texas.
The Euro has a Gulf low forming near the Texas/Louisiana border Friday night then moving across north Florida Saturday.
[Through 18Z Sunday]
Light winds generally from the northeast will begin to calm around sunset.
VFR conditions will prevail through around 08-09Z, when MVFR cigs will build into the region from the south ahead of an approaching Gulf low.
MVFR-IFR vsbys are also likely tonight at all terminals, with the lowest vsbys likely at TLH, ECP, VLD.
Outside of some higher wind gusts associated with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, winds and seas will remain
relatively light through Tuesday.
Winds will become offshore and increase on Wednesday in the wake of a cold front, with conditions at that time approaching Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Brief durations of relative humidity around 25 percent today in
southeast Alabama will likely verify just short of red flag criteria.
With increased rain chances, no red flag conditions are expected through the middle of next week.
There is a potential for heavy rainfall during the first part of the day on Sunday, though the heaviest rain will likely be confined to north Florida and especially along and west of the Apalachicola River.
Flash flooding will likely not be a concern as these basins should be able to accommodate the expected rainfall amounts.
In areas where heavy rainfall is expected, rivers may reach minor flood stage Monday or Tuesday.
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is forecast to reach minor flood stage Sunday night.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 51 69 59 74 56 / 10 70 60 30 30
Panama City 56 67 61 72 60 / 20 80 60 30 30
Dothan 49 64 56 73 56 / 20 70 40 20 20
Albany 47 65 55 73 55 / 0 70 40 20 20
Valdosta 50 70 58 75 55 / 0 70 60 30 20
Cross City 55 73 60 75 57 / 10 50 40 30 30
Apalachicola 58 67 62 70 60 / 20 60 50 30 30