Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A cold front extending southwest from central Tennessee into east
Texas will slide eastward overnight to a position just west of our
CWA by daybreak.
Rain and possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of the front will move into our western zones and gradually spread from west to east.
The best chance for seeing rain will be over our SE AL zones and the western Florida Panhandle.
Fog will once again be prevalent and get an early start as it advects inland from the coastal waters.
We will extend the dense fog advisory for the marine until mid Monday morning.
More than likely we will need a dense fog advisory for at least a portion of the Tri-state region tonight.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Before a more significant cold front approaches from the NW on
Tuesday night and gradually pushes through the region on Wednesday, a couple of unseasonably warm and humid days and nights are in store for the region, after any lingering morning fog and stratus burn off.
Expect Tuesday to be the warmest day with high temps approaching 80 degrees in some of the warmer locations like the SE FL Big Bend, as only isolated showers are expected (at best).
Monday will be just a tad cooler as a weak and dying cold front falls apart as it moves through the CWA.
Low temps will be far above climo as well with lower to mid 50s Monday night and 55 to 60 on Tuesday night.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Not too much change in thinking from yesterday`s fcst for the
extended period, as the overall pattern still should be fairly unsettled.
This synoptic pattern will remain quite progressive and be dominated by a series of shortwaves which will keep PoPs generally in the 20-50 percent range for much of the period.
However, any Arctic air masses will remain bottled up well to our
north and west despite the cold frontal passages, with still no further freezes in sight until perhaps after next weekend, where the 12 UTC GFS and 00 UTC ECMWF are presently in good agreement on yet
another cool down after next weekend, but this could easily change so
Look for gradually deteriorating conditions this evening and overnight as widespread dense fog spreads in from the coast.
We expect IFR conditions by midnight at all TAF sites and then LIFR/VLIFR at most terminals by 06Z.
Additionally, rain and a few thunderstorms may reach DHN and ECP before 12z possibly reaching the remaining terminals by 18z.
Dense fog over the marine area will continue to be the primary concern throughout the remainder of the late afternoon and overnight
hours, once again lingering into the mid morning hours on Monday.
Aside from the fog, expect light to moderate onshore winds through
Tuesday night, before a cold frontal boundary moves into the marine
area on Wednesday shifting winds to offshore.
Also, these offshore winds could reach cautionary levels on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Red flag conditions are not anticipated at least through the upcoming work week.
A series of low pressure systems will bring rain to the area this week.
Rainfall totals will average an inch for most of the area with up to 2 inches possible in Southeast Alabama.
Significant river rises are not expected.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 58 76 55 77 59 / 20 30 20 20 40
Panama City 60 70 57 71 59 / 30 30 20 20 50
Dothan 60 71 53 75 57 / 40 50 30 30 60
Albany 57 75 53 75 57 / 30 30 30 20 50
Valdosta 57 77 55 79 60 / 10 20 20 20 40
Cross City 57 77 54 79 59 / 10 20 10 20 30
Apalachicola 60 69 58 69 60 / 20 20 20 20 40
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Apalachee Bay-
Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.