NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
858 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2014
Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]...
Long wave trough/shortwave and assocd clouds pulling ENE and away from ne gulf with local flow becoming more zonal by sunrise.
At the surface...high sprawled from Ern Great Lakes to Mid-Ms Valley this evening will slide Ewd to OH Valley.
Closer to home...high centered just south of Apalachicola this evening will shift ENE into NE FL by sunrise. This combination will cause local winds to veer.
Skies will be mostly clear and winds light for good radiative cooling.
However...The NE progression of the high will moderate temps from
24hrs ago and will remain well above freezing.
Inland areas will see upper 30s to lower 40s for lows with coastal areas holding around 50.
With the high advancing...RAP13 soundings shows at lowest levels...flow veering to onshore and moving over very cool nearshore waters yielding a little more low level moisture and increasing chances for patchy to areas of fog especially Panhandle on backside of high.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the short term as
a surface ridge east of the area allows for south to southwest flow.
In general, highs are expected to reach the low to mid 70s on Monday and mid to upper 70s on Tuesday.
A couple of exceptions may be right along the coast where the cooler shelf water may keep highs in the upper 60s and across the far northern portions of the area where an increase in clouds and a slight chance of light showers may occur on Tuesday in association with a weak warm front.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Zonal flow at upper levels will prevail at the start of the period with surface high pressure east of the area.
This will bring onshore flow, warm temperatures, and minimal shower chances through Thursday.
The flow starts to amplify some by the end of the week with upper level troughing developing west of the area and southwest flow aloft locally.
A cold front will approach by Friday and give us an increased chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms.
There is some model disagreement at the end of the period on whether the front will sweep cleanly through the area or stall and give us a few days of unsettled conditions.
For now, a chance of showers and thunderstorms was continued through Sunday.
Aviation...[Through 00z Tuesday]
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours with cirrus
streaming in overnight.
Prior to sunrise, brief MVFR visibilities will be possible at TLH/ECP until about 14z.
Thereafter, VFR conditions with light southerly winds are expected Monday afternoon.
With weak surface high pressure in control, an extended period of
light winds and low seas is expected over the coastal waters for much of the upcoming week.
A gradual moistening trend will commence on Monday and continue
through the work week.
Dry air will hang on with RH values around 28 percent across the FL Big Bend on Monday.
However, wind and ERC values will be too low for red flag criteria to be reached.
Minor flooding continues along the Apalachicola River near
Blountstown. No significant impacts are expected.
Minor flooding continues along the Choctawhatchee at Caryville and Bruce.
The river should fall below flood stage at Caryville on Tuesday, and
fall below flood stage at Bruce on Friday.
No significant rainfall is expected this week.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 38 73 45 75 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 47 69 54 71 55 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 41 73 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20 10
Albany 38 72 49 73 53 / 0 0 10 20 10
Valdosta 38 76 45 79 50 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 37 74 43 77 46 / 0 0 0 10 0
Apalachicola 45 67 50 70 53 / 0 0 10 10 0