NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
931 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2014
Near Term [Through Today]...
The 12 UTC regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
central FL. (The line of showers that accompanied this front brought a brief period of wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH to much of our area during the early morning hours).
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a potent trough over the Carolinas lifting rapidly northeast.
With a much drier column over our region we expect sunny skies today, except for some clouds around and north of Dothan and Albany this morning.
Highs will range from the mid 50s in our GA and AL zones, to lower 60s in FL.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
With the upcoming synoptic pattern change which will finally bring
above normal temperatures to the region for much of the upcoming
week, tonight may be the last night in quite some time that many
interior locations drop to near or below the freezing mark.
Any durations below freezing will be short, generally on the order of
1-3 hrs or less where they occur.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure at the Sfc, increasingly zonal flow aloft, and plenty of sunshine should allow high temps to reach the mid to upper 60s across the region on Sunday with very mild lower to mid 70s for highs on Monday.
Low temps on Sunday night are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s east to the lower to mid 40s west away from the immediate coast.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...
Zonal flow will become established across the area for much of the
week with surface high pressure shifting eastward.
The surface ridge axis will extend westward along the Gulf Coast bringing a prolonged period of onshore flow to the region.
The result will be a warm week with minimal rain chances through Thursday.
A weak shortwave will pass north of the area on Tuesday allowing a surface boundary to stall across Alabama and Georgia.
This will bring a slight chance for light showers to our northern zones.
Daytime highs will run some 6-8 degrees above normal with mid 70s common.
By Thursday, a long wave trough will begin to amplify out west allowing heights to rise across FL.
This will allow even warmer temps with upper 70s to around 80 degrees forecast for Thursday and Friday.
There is some disagreement between the GFS and Euro on how close a front will get to the area on Friday.
Still, moisture should increase sufficiently to justify a return of PoPs to the forecast for Friday with isolated thunderstorms possible.
Patchy MVFR cigs are briefly possible around KDHN and KABY this morning.
Otherwise, the gusty NW winds (10 to 15 KT gusting to 20 KT) will gradually diminish this afternoon.
Unlimited vis and cigs are expected through at least Sunday morning.
A very small, but vigorous and fast moving low pressure system and
associated cold front have rapidly increased winds over the coastal
waters early this morning.
These winds have already reached strong Small Craft Advisory levels and a few gusts to Gale force are likely before all is said and done this morning.
However, due to the small size and rapid movement of this cold front, winds and seas should begin to diminish rapidly this afternoon, and therefore, there are no plans to extend the current Small Craft Advisory past 1 PM EST today.
Just as quickly as they increased, winds and seas will drop off drastically tonight and Sunday with a period of light and variable winds expected for the remainder of the weekend which will linger into the beginning portion of next week.
A dry airmass will slide into the region today in the wake of a cold
Expect minimum humidity values in the upper 20s to lower 30s
today, and in the lower to mid 20s on Sunday.
ERC values should remain below 25 with no red flag conditions expected.
Strong northwesterly transport winds today will lead to high dispersions, especially over the eastern Big Bend, with values reaching the middle to upper 70s.
A River Flood Warning is in effect for the Apalachicola River at
The river is currently at 16.5 feet and will rise to 17.4 feet this evening then recede.
A River Flood Warning was also issued for the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce as they are expected to reach minor flood stage Sunday and Tuesday, respectively.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 61 30 69 38 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 60 39 66 48 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 55 32 67 41 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 56 32 66 38 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 58 32 67 37 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 63 33 67 36 74 / 20 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 38 65 45 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.