NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
512 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2014
Near Term [thru Today]...
TODAY...Amplifying Wrn trough will allow Atlc ridge to build in over
This in turn allows next cold front to move SEWD to reach Wrn Gulf and warm front will continue to lift Nwd to across N FL/SE GA both by sundown.
Coastal trough will linger off NE FL.
All this places local area in ideal environment for a surge of WAA while flow remains onshore just above the surface.
Forecast temps a little tricky as persistent low clouds and especially fog can offset WAA and rising heights.
Believe that stratus/fog will delay onset of heating and went on cooler side of guidance.
Still expect noted warmup from yesterday with local area increasingly in warm sector from SE-NW in afternoon.
So max temps from low 60s North to low-mid 70s SE Big Bend.
Isentropic induced showers will increase across mainly Ern counties closest to the front yielding a sharp 0-40% W-E POP gradient.
Big IF is amount and duration of fog which has been late in
However...the moist air with dew points in the upper 50s will continue its ascent over a shallow cool marine layer with temps likely 20 degrees colder than the airmass.
This will continue to saturate lowest levels in the form of stratus and at least some fog into this morning as reflected in CAM/SREF guidance.
The presence of stratus and the low sun angle will prevent early burnoff of any fog that develops.
So do not expect any fog that develops to lift into a low cloud deck inland until late morning and linger near the beaches into the early afternoon.
SREF guidance also shows additional advection fog to likely develop over Gulf waters this afternoon and may begin to impact coastal areas by sundown.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Low level southerly flow is anticipated to become more established
by sunset across the region, creating a favorable environment for
the development of fog over the marine area and then spreading
The weak pressure pattern should allow for more widespread fog development as opposed to a more low stratus event that would be expected with stronger surface winds.
This fog could potentially stick around into a good portion of the daytime hours on Sunday around Apalachee Bay and possibly even persist into Sunday night over the cool shelf waters of Apalachee Bay.
Fog will also be a concern across the region on Sunday night, but should be more limited to the eastern half of the region.
The other feature of note in the short term period is an approaching mid level impulse now over the Southwestern US.
As this system moves eastward, a low pressure area should develop
across the Mid South on Sunday and track just north of the region
Strong ridging over Southern Florida and lack of phasing in with more energetic northern stream flow should keep the bulk of this system out of the forecast area with only chance pops Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Temperatures will be warm throughout the short term period, but
expect fog and stratus each morning/early afternoon to limit how
warm highs will be on Sunday and Monday.
If breaks in the fog/stratus materialize quicker than currently expected, it would not be unrealistic for temperatures on Sunday afternoon to get into the upper 70s and even into the low 80s by Monday, especially
across South Central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.
Overnight lows will be quite warm, generally in the mid to upper 50s.
Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Ridging will build over the Southeast allowing warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
The next frontal system will move through Wednesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with highs near 60 for Thursday.
Significant rainfall is not expected in the next several days.
As warm front lifts Nwd across ERN Gulf thru today...expect MVFR conditions to begin to deteriorate rest of predawn hours with low clouds and fog spreading across the area.
Expect IFR/LIFR CIGS and possibly fog developing before sunrise.
Although VSBYS will improve to MVFR before 18Z,
MVFR cigs are expected to hang around through the late evening.
Then CIGS/VSBYS will drop rapidly to IFR/LIFR thru 06z and beyond as next cold front approaches from the NW.
Light winds and low seas will persist through early next week.
Expect areas of dense sea fog to develop beginning later this
afternoon and continuing through at least Monday morning.
A cold front will approach the local area late Sunday.
Ahead of it... Gulf moisture will be on the increase through this weekend, keeping minimum relative humidity values will above critical levels.
Ample clouds along with low transport winds and mixing heights will yield very low dispersion indices.
Red flag conditions are not anticipated into early next week.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 69 54 72 57 76 / 20 10 10 20 10
Panama City 65 56 69 60 71 / 10 10 10 40 10
Dothan 63 50 73 60 73 / 20 10 10 50 20
Albany 63 51 73 59 74 / 30 10 10 40 30
Valdosta 69 56 75 58 77 / 30 10 10 20 10
Cross City 74 59 76 57 77 / 40 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 66 57 67 59 69 / 20 10 10 30 10