NEAR TERM [Overnight]...
Approaching weak upper trough is generating a large area of mid and high clouds over the southeastern states. Looking upstream,
the clouds should persist overnight, severely limiting any
Measurable precip is not expected with the approaching shortwave,
especially considering the amount of mid-level dry air in the area. However, an isolated sprinkle cannot be ruled out across SE Alabama or SW Georgia late tonight.
No significant changes to the forecast overnight, with just a slight downward nudge for min temps given current trends this evening.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A large, broad trough spanning much of the U.S. on Monday will
flatten out and leave essentially zonal flow across the southern half of the country by Tuesday night.
On Monday, the local area will be positioned at the base of a
shortwave trough, with a positive PV anomaly forecast to traverse
the Tri-State region before turning up the Eastern Seaboard.
This disturbance will likely do very little to the sensible weather
pattern as we`ll be too dry and stable to generate any shower
activity at the surface.
As the anomaly passes into the Gulf it may be able to generate enough troughiness that a few shallow convergent showers may pop up across the Gulf.
In general, the surface will likely consist of a rather weak pressure pattern on Monday as the disturbance temporarily weakens the surface ridge.
As the upper flow transitions to zonal across the southern U.S. on
Tuesday, another potent PV anomaly will be diving south through
In response, a strong low pressure system will be taking shape across the central part of the country, with surface ridging filling back in off the Southeast coastline.
This will begin our transition to a more southerly flow regime at the
With relatively cool temperatures over land on Tuesday morning, the warm, moist southerly trajectories will likely create some light isentropic shower activity throughout the Southeast on Tuesday.
These showers should spread north out of the local area by Tuesday night.
Temperatures will start near average, gradually climbing to a few
degrees above average both day and night through the short term
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The extended forecast will feature the aforementioned potent
shortwave gradually moving southeast, with its forward progress
impeded a bit by a strong upper ridge forecast to build across the
Southern Plains and Southeast.
In the fast upper flow between the trough and the ridge, a PV anomaly originating from a cutoff low in the Pacific will race northeast, skimming the Southeast on Thursday.
This will likely result in some sort of surface troughing just to our northwest, and eventually cyclogenesis as the anomaly passes over the Appalachians.
Thereafter, we will remain in-between the trough and the ridge to round out the period.
All of this translates to the possibility of a rather unstable period at the surface with a prolonged period of shower activity across the Southeast along a quasi-stationary front, likely enhanced by several surface waves.
At this time the bulk of the rain appears to stay just northwest of our immediate forecast area but on-and-off rain through Sunday should be expected.
The Southeast will likely be sharply divided with the Tri-State area
sandwiched right in the middle of the unsettled weather to the
northwest, and unusually hot weather to the southeast.
If the forecast pattern holds true, then we`ll likely be dealing with
warmer than average temperatures through the period as a result of
the strong upper ridge.
Expect afternoon highs to possibly reach 80 for most spots by the end of the week.
Bottom line, expect a mix of showers and warmer than average temperatures.
AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...
A high ceiling around 25,000 feet should gradually lower to around
15,000 feet this evening.
However, the relatively thick deck of mid-high level cloud cover should limit the development of fog and stratus overnight.
Therefore, the forecast calls for VFR conditions overnight and into tomorrow.
We can`t totally rule out the possibility of some patchy fog if breaks in the clouds develop, but the chances of that occurring seem relatively low for now.
Northwesterly flow will transition to southerly by Monday night and will remain moderate through the week.
Expect winds and seas to remain just below headline criteria all week.
With an approaching upper trough beginning mid week and a trailing
cold front Fri into Sat, moisture levels will increase through this period.
Thus, fire weather concerns are not expected through this time.
Rainfall totals early in the week will be minimal and should not
impact river stages.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 49 72 47 73 58 / 10 0 10 30 10
Panama City 54 69 57 73 62 / 10 0 20 30 10
Dothan 48 69 51 73 57 / 10 10 20 30 10
Albany 47 68 48 72 55 / 10 0 20 30 10
Valdosta 49 69 46 73 55 / 10 0 0 10 10
Cross City 51 71 45 75 54 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 54 69 53 71 62 / 10 0 10 20 10