Near Term [Through Today]...
After another chilly morning, a dry and warmer day is on tap today. The 14Z surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas and low pressure centered over central Kansas.
At the mid and upper levels, weak ridging remains in place over the southeast, keeping zonal flow aloft. Today the area will see max temperatures in the mid 60s in southeast Alabama to around 70 in the eastern Florida Big Bend and south-central Georgia and clear skies with a few cirrus clouds, particularly to the west.
Light winds from the southeast today will calm after sunset and low level cloud cover is expected to build in tonight, which will prevent us from another freeze.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s, low-mid 50s along the immediate
Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
As deep layer ridging exits to our east, the next low pressure system developing in the Southern Plains will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the period.
Expect dry weather at least through Friday.
There is a very slight chance for showers on Saturday ahead of the cold front mainly west of an Albany to Panama City line.
With increasing southerly low level flow, temperatures will warm well above seasonal levels.
Max temps Friday will be in the lower to mid 70s and upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Saturday.
Min temps tonight will be significantly milder, ranging from the
lower to mid 40s inland to around 50 near the coast.
Friday night lows will be in the mid to upper 50s inland and around 60 at the coast.
Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The early portion of the extended period will continue to be
unseasonably warm as our pattern will be dominated by a strong upper level ridge which will become anchored off the FL Peninsula and the Bahamas.
This will give us high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday, before a weakening cold front approaches from Sunday
night into Monday.
This front will bring us increasing rain chances for the beginning of the week with some questions as to whether the front will become elongated and stall out in our vicinity through mid week which may keep some rain chances in the forecast.
In any event, it does not appear that there will be a significant shot of
cold air behind the front, with temperatures likely moderating back towards climatological levels.
Unlimited ceilings and visibilities will prevail at the terminals until late in the period with light southeast winds during the daylight hours.
Some guidance is indicating IFR vis/cigs after about 09Z Friday.
Confidence is not high enough at this time to include this at the end of the TAF period.
We kept the forecast MVFR with scattered lower clouds for now.
Winds will be from the southeast at 15 knots or less through the rest of the work week.
By Saturday, however, these onshore winds are expected to ramp up to cautionary levels and continue at least through the weekend as a cold front approaches the local waters.
Winds will shift to become offshore in the wake of the front early next week with speeds expected to drop below headline criteria.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with gradually increasing moisture through the weekend.
No rainfall is expected across the HSA (Hydrological Service Area)
until this weekend at the earliest, so rivers and streams should
continue on a slow downward trend in stages over the next few days.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 46 74 56 79 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 69 54 73 62 77 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 66 46 73 59 78 / 0 0 10 20 20
Albany 68 43 72 55 79 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 70 46 74 55 80 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 72 47 76 56 81 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 67 53 72 62 75 / 0 0 10 10 10