NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
As of 19z, visible satellite was showing rapid clearing of stratus beginning, but with sunset only a few hours away the steady temps around 50 degrees are likely to continue before sharply dropping this evening as CAA continues.
We remain in the surface pressure gradient tonight, so we expect some mixing to continue in the boundary layer. Therefore, we used more raw model guidance for temperatures, as it tends to handle these situations a little better. In particular, we incorporated mean hourly temperatures from our local CAM ensemble.
A brief light freeze is possible around sunrise in the far NW part of the area - mainly in SE Alabama. However, the temporal and spatial extent of freezing temperatures is expected to be limited enough to preclude a Freeze Warning.
Lows should be in the mid-30s elsewhere.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Upper trough over the eastern states will remain place through
Tuesday as surface high pressure slides eastward along the
northern Gulf Coast.
The airmass will gradually modify over the next two days with highs in the lower to mid 60s on Monday, rising to the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday.
With light winds and clear skies anticipated, overnight temperatures will drop to near freezing by Tuesday morning.
At this time, expected durations below freezing do not warrant a Freeze Watch.
As the airmass modifies, lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected for Wednesday morning.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
Through mid to late week, the overall pattern will shift as a trough deepens over the western states and heights rise in the east.
This will allow temperatures in the forecast area to rise back above normal values by Thursday with dry conditions.
Rain chances will begin to increase on Friday into the weekend as the
western trough begins to slide east and low pressure lifts northeast out of Texas.
Visible satellite shows rapid clearing of stratus beginning early this afternoon and this should lead to a transition from MVFR to VFR by 21-22z at all terminals.
VFR expected thereafter with clear skies and lighter NW-N winds.
Winds and seas will continue to subside tonight as high pressure
builds towards the region.
Light winds and minimal seas are then expected through the middle of the week.
Onshore flow will begin to increase again late in the week ahead of an approaching storm system.
Despite a much drier air mass over the region the next couple of days in the wake of the cold front, red flag conditions are not expected.
Fuel moisture increased as well, as a result of recent rainfall.
Despite yesterday`s rainfall, gauges have only detected slight rises on area rivers which still remain well below action stage at most sites.
Significant rainfall is not expected until perhaps next weekend, so further decline or steady river levels can be expected through the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 35 62 31 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 39 61 41 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 33 60 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 33 61 34 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 34 61 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 37 64 32 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 39 60 40 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0