Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Today`s set up will be very similar to what we saw yesterday.
Regional 15Z surface analysis shows very little change from this morning. The stationary frontal boundary to our northwest will serve as forcing for storms and keep coverage in our Georgia counties high again today. Like yesterday, storms started this morning over the Gulf coast and along the FL Big Bend and has been steadily increasing through the day.
Coverage will be similar to yesterday- high on our extreme westernmost zones in the late morning/early afternoon, then moderate around the Apalachicola River and high in our northern Georgia and Alabama counties.
Highs will be in the mid 90s with heat indices in 100-104 range. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Mid/upper level ridging will weaken over the next couple of days as an eastern CONUS trough gradually amplifies.
On Sunday, embedded within what will generally still be deep layer ridging, a very weak and elongated mid/upper wave will move into the Tri-State region. Right now, this wave is assisting the ongoing convection along the MS/AL/TN borders.
Expect this disturbance to initiate convection across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia on Sunday afternoon, with seabreeze convection across north Florida. Towards the late afternoon, expect convective coverage to increase along and around the Tri-State lines as the two areas of storms merge together.
Monday`s convection looks to be mostly seabreeze driven, and is one of our wetter patterns especially across north Florida and the FL/GA line. There may be a scattering of less robust convection north into AL and GA, where weak upper level diffluence will be spreading southeast in advance of a digging shortwave.
Overall, both afternoons will feature above average rain chances in the afternoons with morning Gulf coastal showers and storms to be expected as well.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The amplifying trough will force a front south into our region near mid-week. The front will stall out in an east-west line and wobble north and south across south Georgia and southeast Alabama.
Ahead of the front, high rain chances will prevail through midweek with drier conditions at week’s end. The finer details as to exactly how much of our area dries out and sees lower rain chances will be resolved better over the next several days.
VFR should prevail through the period with west-southwest winds generally at 10 knots or less.
VCTS has already started filling in across the area except near TLH.
Coverage will be very similar to yesterday.
MVFR BR will be possible in the early morning hours at VLD once again Sunday.
Southwesterly winds below headline levels will continue next week.
Seas should remain at or below 2 feet.
Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels through next week. Red flag conditions will not be met.
With no significant rainfall expected and all area rivers below bank full stage, flooding is not a concern.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 93 74 91 74 / 20 60 30 70 40
Panama City 78 90 76 89 76 / 10 50 30 50 30
Dothan 73 90 73 92 73 / 20 70 40 50 30
Albany 74 92 74 93 74 / 20 60 40 50 30
Valdosta 73 93 73 92 73 / 20 50 30 70 40
Cross City 74 92 73 92 73 / 20 50 20 50 30
Apalachicola 76 89 75 87 76 / 10 40 30 40 30