Near Term [Through Today]...
A 17Z regional surface analysis shows this morning`s weak pressure gradient is still in place over the southeast with high pressure over the Nrn GOMEX. The stationary frontal boundary hasn`t shifted much and lies to our northeast from the SC-GA border, diagonally across central GA and TN and into SW KY and S IL then across S MO and NE OK.
As a shortwave impulse swings through this pattern this afternoon however, enhanced divergence aloft will help aid convection, giving us higher coverage of storms than we`ve seen the past few days.
Local radar shows the highest coverage is currently to our west over SW AL and the FL Panhandle and to our east in NE FL. This coverage will expand into our area this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected in the westernmost portions of our CWA and in southwest GA.
After sunset, these storms will begin to diminish and in the early morning hours, we expect some showers to develop over our eastern coastal waters with the nighttime land-breeze.
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Very weak deep layer ridging will prevail through the weekend, though a series of weak mid-level waves will pass through the Tri-State region enhancing rain chances each day.
Expect widespread coverage of storms both Saturday and Sunday, with the greatest coverage expected across Alabama and Georgia.
Coastal showers should be expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend each morning.
High temperatures each day will peak in the middle 90s.
Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The weak mid/upper level ridge will give way to a more amplified pattern in the form of a trough by Tuesday night and lasting through the end of next week.
This will set up an east-to-west oriented surface trough near the Tri-State lines and yield above average rain chances region-wide.
Afternoon highs will remain very close to seasonal averages, in the low 90s.
VFR should prevail with winds generally from the W / SW at less than 10 kts.
Thunderstorm coverage this afternoon is expected to be scattered with the highest coverage in the extreme western portions of our area and in southwest Georgia, therefor VCTS is in the TAFs for ECP, DHN, ABY, and VLD.
Light winds and low seas will continue into the foreseeable future.
Expect coastal showers and thunderstorms each morning.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds.
No fire weather concerns through next week.
Our area rivers are currently at or below their normal levels.
No significant rainfall expected over the next week an no flooding is expected.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 95 75 94 76 / 20 50 30 60 30
Panama City 77 90 77 89 77 / 10 40 20 50 40
Dothan 74 95 74 93 75 / 20 60 30 70 40
Albany 74 95 74 94 75 / 30 60 40 70 50
Valdosta 72 95 72 94 74 / 30 50 40 60 50
Cross City 73 93 73 92 74 / 20 50 30 60 40
Apalachicola 76 89 75 89 76 / 10 40 30 50 30