Near Term [Through Today]...
Fairly complex fcst today, as determining what will be close to a correct PoP distribution across our CWA and the coastal waters will be full of uncertainty. We still have the digging but fairly weak shortwave that is slowly approaching from the west, and an upper level low which is just creeping northwestward off the SW coastline of the FL peninsula.
The combination and influence of these 2 systems is appearing to make the coastal waters and the FL Panhandle the most convectively active locations today, and this is becoming more evident in some of the more recent numerical guidance.
The greatest shift of all is in the ECMWF MOS from last night (which is only available to us on the 00 UTC runs), lowering PoPs between 30% and 50% over parts of our GA zones from SE to NW respectively! Albany, for example has dropped from 60% to 10% which is quite dramatic for the Euro. However, the differences are more subtle the further to the S and W we go, with parts of the FL Panhandle virtually unchanged.
Based on this new data, and other reliable guidance, will update today`s PoPs to reflect these changes. Also, with light offshore Flow between 1000 and 700mb, the sea breeze (if enough insolation occurs) and any convection it spawns should remain closer to the coast as well.
High temps will also be a bit tricky, but generally went with lower 90s in most areas except a bit warmer at Valdosta (VLD) which is usually our warmest daytime OB.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Upper troughing will remain in place but become less amplified by Wednesday as the Atlantic ridge expands further west. This is also reflected in forecast soundings showing some mid level drying on Wednesday.
PoPs will be in the chance/good chance range (highest east) on Tuesday and then below climo tapered slight (20%) north to low end chance (30%) south.
Temperatures will be near their seasonal averages.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A surface cold front will lie across central Florida Wednesday night, keeping PoPs low with only around 30% chances near Dixie county. As an area of upper level PV swings through the UL trough in place, the the front will lift northeastward.
When this front returns northward as a warm front, chances for rain will increase again to around 50% on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be on the warm side of average for the season- highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail for most of the period, with still a possibility for a brief period of MVFR Cigs at ABY and IFR/LIFR Cigs at DHN and VLD early this morning.
Also, with the upcoming trimming back of the PoPs, will plan on removing the VCTS (or possible direct convective groups) at all locations except for ECP and TLH this afternoon.
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days (outside of any showers and thunderstorms) with a weak pressure pattern expected to remain in place.
No fire weather concerns are expected during the next several days as afternoon relative humidities remain well above critical thresholds.
A wet pattern is setting up and will be in place through early this week.
Rainfall totals are expected to be around 1-2".
With area rivers at or below normal levels, this is not expected to cause flooding.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 72 94 73 95 / 50 20 40 20 30
Panama City 90 76 91 76 93 / 40 20 30 20 30
Dothan 93 70 94 72 95 / 40 20 30 20 30
Albany 92 70 94 71 95 / 40 20 30 20 20
Valdosta 94 71 94 71 95 / 50 20 40 20 30
Cross City 93 73 93 72 93 / 50 30 40 20 30
Apalachicola 88 75 90 76 91 / 40 20 30 20 30