NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The long wave pattern this afternoon continues to feature a ridge over TX and a trough across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic region.
This leaves the Southeast in a northwest flow regime. The MCS over
the Ozarks is dissipating. However, it did leave behind a decent
looking MCV. At the surface, we continue to analyze a cold front
across central portions of GA and AL.
Convection is developing slowly across the forecast area this afternoon, both on the sea breeze front and along the cold front. We expect the convection to gradually become more vigorous, especially once we start seeing some boundary interactions.
The dry layer evident on the 12Z KTAE sounding could cause some of the storms to produce wet microbursts. The WMSI based on a modified sounding is 64. This would indicate strong storms, but not necessarily severe.
The upstream MCV will only make it to MS or northern AL by 12Z and will weaken as it moves southeast. Therefore it is not expected to be a factor in tonight`s weather.
The cold front will settle into our northern zones overnight and convection will end this evening from northwest to southeast.
Overnight lows will be close to normal, generally in the lower 70s inland. Coastal areas will bottom out in the upper 70s to around 80.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Our new normal (abnormal) summertime pattern will continue with
mid/upper level impulses forecast to funnel into the Southeast
through the channel between the Southern Plains ridge and the
Hudson Bay low.
At the surface, troughiness will likely disturb the typical high pressure pattern. The aforementioned features will, in conjunction with some form of an afternoon seabreeze, combine to yield below average rain chances Monday and above average rain chances Tuesday.
Highs will run a few degrees above normal, with heat indicies hitting 100-105 degrees.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Saturday]...
Wednesday will possibly be drier than the short term period as
mid/upper ridging pushes the persistent trough north out of the
Southeast, however, this pattern will be short lived.
Thursday and Friday a TUTT will gradually move over the Florida Peninsula, breaking down the upper ridge and allowing typical seabreeze storms to form each afternoon.
Over the weekend, the ridge is forecast to once again overspread the Southeast, likely drying the region out.
However, there is some uncertainty as to whether or not the eastern trough will dig back south by Sunday and push a front into the region. This keeps the possibility for a return to the wet pattern in the forecast by the end of next weekend.
AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Sunday]...
Scattered convection will continue to develop across the region this afternoon and we have maintained mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs.
We also expect some minor mainly MVFR visibility restrictions during the hours surrounding sunrise.
The continued weak surface pressure pattern will keep winds
relatively light and seas calm for the foreseeable future.
The typical enhancements closer to the coast within the seabreeze
should be expected each afternoon.
Relative humidity levels will remain well above critical levels this
week precluding red flag conditions from being realized. Dispersion
indices will be rather low on Tuesday, in many cases below 30.
River gauge readings show all area rivers out of flood stage, with
the Aucilla River near Lamont hovering right at flood stage.
All forecast points suggest area river levels to either hold steady,
or gradually decrease over the next several days.
Widespread heavy rains are not anticipated, with scattered afternoon storms likely each day.
Thus, small stream and river flooding is not anticipated to be an issue through next week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 94 75 93 74 / 30 40 20 50 30
Panama City 77 90 79 90 77 / 30 30 20 40 30
Dothan 72 94 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 50 30
Albany 72 94 73 92 73 / 20 20 10 30 30
Valdosta 72 95 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 40 30
Cross City 72 92 74 91 73 / 40 40 30 40 20
Apalachicola 78 90 77 88 76 / 20 30 20 30 20