...Dense Fog Across Portions Of The Forecast Area This Morning...
...Scattered Storms Some Accompanied By Heavy Rain And Gusty Winds Are Expected Through The Weekend...
Near Term... Today
The combination of calm winds and ample residual moisture from
last night storms generated dense fog across portions of SW and
S/Cntrl GA during the predawn hours. The fog should begin to lift
by 9 AM EDT. A dense fog advisory was issued until that time.
Convection from late Friday evening continues early this morning
over the Gulf waters just offshore of the Florida Panhandle. Debris
cloudiness from the convective cluster remains in place across the
As a result, expect destabilization to be a little slower today and the sea breeze circulation to be a little more disturbed across the Panhandle. Added to this is guidance continuing to indicate the arrival of some mid level dry air from the northeast. The combination of these factors do not favor widespread convection today and suggest a pop distribution slightly below climo.
Hi-res guidance supports the idea that storms will be widely scattered and delayed in development until as late as 20z today. Thus, will indicate 30 percent rain chances across the northern zones and around 40 percent in North Florida.
Once the mid and upper level cloudiness thins enough, expect a warm afternoon with highs in the lower 90s. It shouldn`t be as hot as
Friday, though it will still be noticeably humid with heat indices
in the 100 to 104 degree range.
Short Term – Tonight through Monday…
The large scale pattern commences tonight looking WWD with a
continued retrograding of upper ridge placing Ern periphery along
Wrn Gulf region, Ern periphery being eroded by small low diving down
ridge into AR/LA/TX. Looking NEWD, Trough over NE and Mid-Atlc
states, looking South, small low over SW FL and looking ESE, ridge
over SW Atlc with axis WWD to SE FL.
At surface, quasi-stnry front across Srn GA with high across NE GA/SW SC. Ridge across S FL. All this places deep south including our area in a weakness and weak pressure pattern between all these systems. As reflected in model soundings, upper flow will remain NELY but low level flow will shift to onshore. Scattered showers and isold tstms to persist into late eve especially east of Apalachicola River. With grounds wet from residual moisture, expect fog to develop after midnight, especially Ern counties.
During Sun, upper Wrn ridge will continue to retreat allowing Ern
trough to dig Swwd and absorb SW FL low with shift to increasing SW
steering flow and lowering heights. High pressure to our SE will
build WNW into N/Cntrl FL and serve to lift stalled front Nwd where
it gradually dissipates.
All this will veer flow to calm to light SWLY from sfc to mid levels and allow for a return to more typical summertime convection with sea breeze triggering afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Expect type 6 (SW around 10 kts) seabreeze enhanced by weakness over area.
However NWD jaunt of front favors Nrn tier AL/GA counties and presents more of a disturbed pattern. So will go highest there, 40-50% POPs.
With light steering flow, PWATS AOA 2 inches on model soundings and the proximity of upper trough, expect locally heavy rain and strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning especially with cell mergers. GFS shows CAPE over Srn AL/GA well over 3000 J/KG at 18z so even though shear not overly impressive, enough ingredients that we cant discount isold severe storms with damaging winds. Max temps in the low 90s.
On Mon, Little change in upper features but front largely lifts Nwd and washes out so will go 30-40% mainly seabreeze driven S-N POP gradient. Max temps remain in low 90s.
Long Term - Monday Night through Friday...
Trough along the eastern seaboard is forecast to amplify through
next week. This will eventually push a front toward the forecast
area late in the week.
The front is unlikely to progress through the entire area. However, some drier air may filter into the northern zones by Thursday and Friday, with lower rain chances possible.
Until that time, expect to see typical summertime diurnal convection largely driven by the sea breeze. Expect temperatures to stay near or just above seasonal normals.
Aviation [Through 06Z Sunday]...
Debris cloudiness will continue to thin and with moist near surface
conditions from late evening rains, expect development of fog and
low ceilings at ABY/VLD/TLH before sunrise.
VLD is already in the LIFR category and this is certainly possible at the other sites through sunrise.
After 13z any restrictions should end quickly.
Thunderstorm development will be more scattered and delayed until
after 18z today, so included only VCTS groups at TLH/ECP/VLD where
rain chances are greatest.
Expect storms to come to an end around 01z.
Outside of any thunderstorms, very light winds and minimal seas are
expected over the coastal waters through the early next with with a
weak pressure gradient in place.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated in the
The Middle Suwannee River points from Ellaville through Luraville
will crest over the next 36 hours as the Withlacoochee has already
crested through the confluence with the Suwannee. The Alapaha will
be cresting shortly from Jennings on down to its mouth with the
Suwannee near Nobles Ferry. Crests on the Middle Suwannee from
Luraville on up river will be below action stage. Modest rises
from Branford on through the lower portion of the Suwannee
throughout the weekend and early next week will be sufficient to
bring many of the points along the river to at least action stage.
Wilcox at US-19 has the best chance of reaching minor flood stage
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, all remaining rivers in the
forecast area remain in recession. The Aucilla River will continue
to fall slowly and likely be below flood stage on Monday. The
Ochlockonee will be below flood stage later this morning.
On the Apalachicola, forecast releases from Woodruff Dam do look to be just low enough to get Blountstown back below flood stage during Saturday morning, though the river will remain in action stage for some time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 93 73 91 73 93 / 40 30 40 30 40
Panama City 91 76 88 75 87 / 40 20 40 20 30
Dothan 94 73 92 72 91 / 30 30 40 30 40
Albany 93 74 92 73 92 / 30 30 50 30 40
Valdosta 93 71 92 71 92 / 40 30 40 40 40
Cross City 92 72 90 72 90 / 40 30 40 20 30
Apalachicola 90 76 87 76 87 / 40 20 30 20 20
Waches & Warnings...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF BIG BEND.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF AREA.
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