Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon convection is likely to linger into early evening hours, primarily south and east of a line from Albany to Destin. Thereafter, quiet weather is expected with near normal temperatures overnight.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A weak upper level trough axis will persist west of the area through the short term. This will act to keep deep moisture across the area with PWAT values just under 2" on Monday.
By Tuesday, some slightly drier air could move into the northern sections of the area.
PoPs will generally be in the 40-50% range (near climatology) on Monday and slightly lower on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be near their seasonal averages.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
A surface cold front will lie across central Florida Wednesday, keeping PoPs low with only around 30% chances near Dixie county. As an area of upper level PV swings through the UL trough in place, the the front will lift northeastward.
When this front returns northward as a warm front, chances for rain will increase again to around 50% on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be on the warm side of average for the season - highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.
IFR CIGs still holding on in SE Alabama this afternoon, but should burn off by mid afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms may impact most terminals this afternoon, with the
possible exception of KDHN.
Overnight, expect fewer low clouds than previous two nights.
However, KVLD and KABY may see brief period of IFR cigs around sunrise.
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days (outside of any showers and thunderstorms) with a weak pressure pattern expected to remain in place.
Humidity levels will remain above critical values through the middle of the week, with no fire weather concerns expected.
A wet pattern is setting up and will be in place through early next week.
Rainfall totals are expected to be around 1-2".
With area rivers at or below normal levels, this is not expected to cause flooding.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 92 72 93 72 / 40 50 20 40 20
Panama City 74 88 76 90 76 / 40 40 20 30 20
Dothan 71 91 71 93 71 / 30 40 20 30 20
Albany 72 92 70 94 71 / 30 40 20 30 20
Valdosta 71 93 70 95 71 / 40 50 20 40 20
Cross City 72 92 72 91 72 / 40 50 20 40 20
Apalachicola 74 88 75 90 76 / 30 40 20 30 20