NEAR TERM [Today]...
As upper level high pressure continues to build Eward over the SErn
CONUS, meridional flow from the N-NW is helping continue the push of drier air into our area through the entire air column. With low
moisture in the air column, it will be hard to sustain or even start
convection. The 1000-700mb flow will shift from SW at <10 kts to NW
at <10 kts in the afternoon, or from type 4 to type 8 seabreeze.
Both of these days typically have very low coverage, which matches
up with what we`d expect from synoptic scale forcing as well.
With low storm coverage, temperatures should climb into the mid 90s
today, low 90s along the immediate coast. Heat indices will be in
the 100-105 range like yesterday.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
In the mid/upper levels, high pressure centered over the Southern
Plains will continue to ridge eastward across the gulf coastal
states. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern will remain in place
with winds shifting from southwest to west on Sunday as a cold front
drops down form the north.
The front along with increasing moisture in the mid levels with bring scattered thunderstorms (40%) to the entire local region Sunday afternoon.
The MAV temperature guidance seemed a bit too high on Sunday (i. e. 98 Albany, 97 Tallahassee) so I undercut them a few degrees. However, temps are expected to be at or slightly above seasonal levels with forecast heat indices between 100 and 105 at most locations.
LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
Mid/upper level troughing is expected to persist over the nern U.S., with a transition to ely mid level flow over our region by the end of the week. A surface cool front may slide into or approach the area from the n-nw the area on Monday, before stalling early in the week. This will result in continued unsettled weather over the tri- state region, including above normal PoPs, each afternoon and near normal afternoon highs.
AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
With the exception of late night/early morning IFR-MVFR level BR,
VFR will prevail through the period. Some isolated showers may pop
up today, but coverage will be so low and storms should be brief
enough that restrictions were left out of the TAFs.
With a very weak pressure gradient in place, winds will be light from the southwest to west along with low seas at least through the
beginning of the work week.
No fire weather concerns.
The Choctawhatchee river near Bruce and the Aucilla near Lamont
are expected to hover right around minor flood stage through the
weekend before dipping below by Monday. Otherwise, outside of any
afternoon thunderstorm, no additional flooding issues are expected.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 94 75 95 75 90 / 20 20 40 30 50
PANAMA CITY 92 77 91 78 88 / 20 20 40 30 50
DOTHAN 95 74 94 75 89 / 20 20 40 30 60
ALBANY 96 74 94 74 90 / 20 20 40 30 50
VALDOSTA 96 73 95 73 92 / 20 20 40 30 50
CROSS CITY 92 74 93 75 90 / 30 20 40 30 40
APALACHICOLA 90 76 88 78 88 / 20 10 30 30 40