NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS has moved in a
drier, cooler air mass into the area. This is a refreshing change of pace from the heavy rains earlier this season, and a nice decrease in heat just in time for the end of meteorological summer.
There is a slight chance of rain over our easternmost counties today as the east coast sea breeze may push far enough inland to reach us, but any convection that makes it over here should dissipate after sunset.
Highs today should peak in the upper 80s to around 90. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s-low 70s.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Generally deep layer ridging and below average moisture levels will yield below average seabreeze thunderstorm coverage and intensity.
Afternoon highs will be near to slightly above average.
However, the drier airmass and relatively clear skies will allow
evening temperatures to fall to near average or even below average
over the next few nights.
Some of the cooler spots, primarily across SE AL, will likely see morning lows in the middle 60s.
LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
With the local area in the transition zone between the mid/upper
ridge and broad weak troughing, deep layer moisture will be
slightly higher than in the short term period.
At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure will be situated somewhere near the eastern half of our forecast area and will likely disturb/enhance our afternoon seabreeze.
Expect near to slightly above average rain chances beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend before more normal rain chances return on Monday with a strengthening surface ridge.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at TLH and ECP.
The bulk of the guidance is suggesting MVFR vsbys with BR at DHN,
ABY, and VLD briefly in the early morning period, but otherwise
VFR will prevail at these sites as well.
Winds will generally be from the NE at less than 10 kts.
Winds and seas will subside through this evening and remain in a
relatively calm state for the foreseeable future.
The greatest enhancements in winds and seas will be near the coast within the afternoon seabreeze.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain low through Thursday, after which scattered storms will become more likely.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through
the period. No fire weather concerns.
For the most part, river levels will be on the decrease over the
next several days with little to no rainfall expected.
The exception will be along the Withlacoochee, Alapaha, and Suwannee River where recent rains have taken some time to route through the river system.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 70 91 69 92 70 / 10 30 20 30 10
Panama City 71 87 73 89 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
Dothan 67 91 66 95 69 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 67 91 66 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 68 90 66 92 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
Cross City 69 91 67 91 70 / 20 30 20 30 10
Apalachicola 73 86 73 87 74 / 10 30 10 30 10