NEAR TERM [Through Rest of Tonight]...
A quiet weather pattern continues.
The large scale pattern shows a large and amplified upper ridge dominating almost all of CONUS with high across Mid MS Valley. Only exception is troughs over PAC Coast and extreme Wrn Atlc swwd toward FL Peninsula.
This has provided dry NLY flow from Carolinas/GA to over our area. At surface high in Atlc just off NY state with elongated ridge SW to 1025mb high over VA then Swwd across CWA. Looking Swd, weakening stationary front aligned across S/Cntrl FL. This places local area between both systems with relatively tight NE gradients.
The mid/upper steering flow has suppressed most convection and kept it over water earlier today. However NE low level flow provided just enough lift to nudge east coast seabreeze related convection to our Ern most counties and adjacent coasts but by 7 PM weakened with the loss of the sun.
During the rest of tonight, high pressure both at surface and aloft
will continue to build swd across the region pushing marine
convection further offshore and creating one of the driest airmasses
we have seen in awhile.
This reflected in RAP13 soundings with NE flow lower to upper levels, and for TAE with PWATS dropping from 1.6 inches at 03z to 1.3 inches at 12z Mon. Even drier DHN drops from 0.7 to 0.6 inches during this time. Will go with N-S 0-20% land and 30-40% marine mainly eve POP.
With the absence of clouds and NE flow, low temperatures will be noticeably cooler in some areas with mid 60s expected across the northern half of the area, and generally near 70 elsewhere.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday night]...
Forecast has not changed much with finally a return to more sun
and less rain across the region into mid week.
Models continue to suggest drier air will settle across the region and will maintain lack of mention of showers for all areas outside of the eastern Big Bend where chance PoPs may be needed.
Temperatures will likely top out around 90 for most inland areas with light east winds. The drier air should also allow overnight temperatures to slide into the 60s away from the coast. Overall, rather pleasant conditions for late August for much of the week.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
Large ridge of high pressure over the Plains states will dominate
the extended period with relatively dry and seasonable temperatures persisting into late week across the tri-state region.
ECMWF and GFS both slide another weak cool front s-swwd across the Southeast U.S. and into the region Friday or Saturday bringing a chance of rain back to the area.
Drier air is spreading into the region from the north, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
As a strong area of high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard, winds are expected to increase to exercise caution levels tonight and into Monday.
Winds and seas will decrease by mid-week as the ridge continues building closer to the area.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days. High dispersion values are expected across
most of northwest Florida on Monday.
Several of our local rivers continue with high flows/stages, mainly
in the lower portions of the basins.
However, these rivers are all on their way down.
Much drier conditions this week should allow some much-needed time for problem areas to dry out.
One possible exception would be the Suwannee River where routed flow from tributaries will finally be arriving over the next week or two, and long term forecasts from the river forecast center take a few
points above bankfull stage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 69 88 69 90 67 / 20 10 10 10 0
Panama City 71 88 71 88 72 / 30 0 10 10 10
Dothan 65 87 66 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 64 87 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 67 90 66 90 65 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cross City 69 88 68 91 67 / 30 30 10 20 10
Apalachicola 74 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 20 10 10