NEAR TERM [Today]...
Deep layer moisture will remain in place across the local region with forecast PWs right around 2". A cold front will be approaching from the north and should reach our AL and GA zones by this evening.
This combined with sea breeze interaction and daytime heating will
bring another day of elevated rain chances across the Tri-state area. Temps will be at or just below seasonal levels.
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Rain chances will begin to decrease (compared to recent days) on
Sunday as progressively drier air advects into our forecast area
from the north.
The latest NWP model consensus seems a little faster and more pronounced in this drying trend compared to 24 hours ago, and for
the first time in quite a while our PoP for Monday afternoon is 10%
or less for our entire region.
Not only will the PoP be well below average Monday, but the airmass will actually be a little cooler and drier than average, with highs Monday in the upper 80s (despite plenty of sunshine) and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
This drier air, along with northeast winds of 5 to 10 MPH, will make it
feel more pleasant outside than the normal hot, muggy "dog days" of
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
A reprieve from the seemingly endless wet weather is expected
during most of the work week as a surface ridge of high pressure
builds over the eastern seaboard and an upper level ridge centered
over the Plains expands eastward.
This should keep the overall flow more out of the east or northeast, which is typically drier. Any shower and thunderstorm activity through the period will primarily be driven by the afternoon sea breeze, and PoPs are generally expected to be below average with near average
AVIATION [through 06 UTC Sunday]...
Extensive mid and upper level cloudiness across the region should
limit widespread fog/low ceiling formation this morning. However, did include the potential of MVFR conditions at TLH/ABY/VLD.
With a cold front approaching from the north we expect numerous showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon/early evening. Winds will be light from the east.
East winds less than 15 KT and seas less than 4 FT are expected
However, as an area of high pressure builds along the eastern seaboard, winds and seas will increase Sunday night and Monday.
Exercise caution conditions are possible at times Monday and/or Tuesday.
No fire weather concerns.
With Precip Water values continuing above average, there is still
potential for isolated high rainfall rates (2-4 inches/hour).
Like yesterday, however, the latest Convection Allowing Models are not
forecasting much in the way of convective organization, which should
limit the overall threat for flooding today.
Significant drying Sunday, and especially Monday, will allow our forecast area some much-needed time to dry out a little.
For today, if flooding occurs, it would most likely be limited to urban areas and/or low-lying areas that already have standing water.
Several of our local rivers continued with high flows/stages, mainly in the lower portions of the basins. Of these, the Chipola River at Altha, Choctawhatchee River at Bruce, and Ochlockonee River at Concord and Havana were at moderate flood stage or higher.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 89 72 89 69 90 / 60 30 30 10 10
Panama City 88 74 87 73 88 / 60 30 30 20 10
Dothan 90 71 88 69 87 / 50 20 20 10 10
Albany 91 71 87 67 87 / 50 20 10 0 10
Valdosta 89 71 87 68 88 / 60 20 20 10 10
Cross City 88 71 90 68 91 / 70 30 30 20 10
Apalachicola 87 75 86 74 88 / 60 30 40 20 10
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