NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a broad ridge
over Cntrl Conus with high over OK, flanked by troughs along the
Pac and Atlc coasts (with base over N/Cntrl GA). Closer to home, weakening TUTT moving Wwd across Wrn Gulf and high just off SE FL coast.
This places local area in a weakness between all these systems. At surface, high pressure remains in place with ridge from from high in Atlc east of N FL Wwd to high over FL Panhandle. Looking Nwd, frontal boundary extends across Carolinas and Nrn GA. Looking SW, a tropical wave and remnant MCV continue to exit Wwd across W/Cntrl Gulf. Latest radar pix show offshore marine convection, especially Panhandle waters increasing in intensity and SMW issued. Strong storms starting to move onshore across Panhandle counties.
During the rest of this aftn and thru tonight, Ern mid/upper trough will dig Swd reaching N FL. This will displace high Swd and allow front to dip SWD. With digging trough and approaching front, PWATS will remain above 2 inches.
HI RES models like HRRR seem too aggressive for convection especially N of FL border. Marine/coastal convection will continue to move onshore.
However, by late aftn, focus will shift towards I-75 corridor and the merging of Gulf and east coast seabreezes. The mean 1000-700mb
flow will remains light and from the SE so storms that develop there
will be slow movers with the potential remaining for flooding downpours. Altho threat of strong to isold severe storms has
diminished, cant discount with the combination of the digging trough, approaching surface front and any seabreeze- mesoscale
Will go with sct mainly eve convection over local area, less so Nrn most counties. Will go with 50-30% mainly eve precip with highest POPs se big bend with seabreeze mergers and wrn most waters closest to departing MCV/wave.
Min temps will generally be in low 70s.
SHORT TERM [Saturday through Sunday night]...
Ample deep layer moisture and a weak backdoor cold front moving
slowly southward this weekend will keep elevated rain chances
across much of the area.
The weak area of low pressure in the Gulf is expected to drift slowly away from the area during the short term.
Saturday appears to have the higher rain chances with a decreasing trend starting on Sunday and especially continuing into the work week.
LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
A reprieve from the seemingly endless wet weather is expected
during most of the work week as a surface ridge of high pressure
builds over the eastern seaboard and an upper level ridge centered
over the Plains expands eastward.
This should keep the overall flow more out of the east or northeast, which is typically drier.
Any shower and thunderstorm activity through the period will primarily be driven by the afternoon sea breeze, and PoPs are generally expected to be below average with near average temperatures.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the rest of this afternoon into the eve.
TSRA TLH and ECP rest of this aftn, VCTS other terminals. with MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS likely in any stronger storms and heavier rain.
Then VFR returns until after 07z-13z with MVFR VSBYS and possibly CIGS except for IFR CIGS likely at VLD towards sunrise.
VFR conditions expected everywhere 13z-18z.
Winds and seas are expected to remain fairly low through the
By the beginning of the work week, high pressure is expected to build along the eastern seaboard, resulting in moderate easterly winds.
No fire weather concerns.
Several of our local rivers continued with high flows/stages, mainly
in the lower portions of the basins.
Of these, the Chipola River at Altha, Choctawhatchee River at Bruce, and Ochlockonee River at Concord and Havana were at moderate flood stage or higher.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 90 71 90 70 / 40 60 40 50 30
Panama City 75 88 74 88 73 / 40 60 40 50 30
Dothan 71 90 72 88 70 / 30 50 30 40 20
Albany 71 91 71 89 69 / 30 50 30 30 20
Valdosta 72 89 70 89 68 / 40 60 30 40 20
Cross City 72 89 70 89 69 / 50 60 40 50 30
Apalachicola 74 87 75 87 74 / 40 60 40 50 30
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