Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Expect a few thunderstorms to impact the I-75/Suwannee Valley corridor early this evening in association with the east coast seabreeze and a surface trough. This activity should end by midnight, with a quiet night expected otherwise.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Deep layer moisture will increase through Monday as an upper level trough digs west of the area. Precipitable water values are forecast to rise to around 2 inches across the area for both Sunday and Monday on the 12z GFS. The 00z Euro is also in general agreement. The 12z NAM seems too dry for PoPs on Monday given the overall pattern and expected deep layer moisture.
Given the presence of weak troughing plus significant deep layer moisture, PoPs are expected to be in the 50-60% range both days. Near seasonal temperatures are expected with a return to higher dewpoints.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
A wet pattern in place this week with an upper level trough staying relatively in place through mid-week. A positively tilted upper level trough lies over the eastern CONUS with a ridge to the west over the four corners region and the Bermuda High to the east.
This pattern will stall a surface front across our area, keeping rain chances high.
Slight movement eastward will lower chances for rain Wednesday, but on Thursday, a piece of vorticity will swing through the upper level trough, lifting the trough and the front northeastward.
As the front lifts northward, low-level moist, southerly flow will keep rain chances around 40% through Saturday.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.
Low clouds continue to linger at KABY early this afternoon but should be close to burning off.
An isolated thunderstorms is not out of the question this afternoon at inland terminals. However, chances are pretty low.
Another round of low clouds is possible tonight after 09Z at KABY, KDHN, and KVLD.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail.
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days outside of any showers and thunderstorms with a weak pressure pattern expected to remain in place.
Summerlike conditions and near normal chances for rain will keep fire concerns at a minimum over the next few days.
A wet pattern is setting up and will be in place through early next week.
Rainfall totals are expected to be around 1-2".
With area rivers at or below their normal levels, this is not expected to cause significant rises on area rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 93 71 92 72 / 20 50 40 60 30
Panama City 75 89 75 90 75 / 20 50 20 50 30
Dothan 71 89 71 91 72 / 20 60 40 60 30
Albany 72 90 71 92 73 / 30 60 40 60 30
Valdosta 72 94 71 94 71 / 50 60 40 60 30
Cross City 72 94 71 92 72 / 50 50 20 50 30
Apalachicola 74 90 74 89 75 / 20 40 20 60 30