Near Term [Through Today]...
The forecast for PoPs today is a little tricky as the morning surface analysis shows a weak stationary front extending just into the northern portion of our forecast area. Further complicating matters is an approaching shortwave moving east.
Our CAM ensemble, and now the latest 00Z Euro indicate good chances for rain in NE (around Albany/Valdosta) and in NW (Dothan) portions of our CWA.
PoPs in these areas will be around 40-50%.
In the Central Big Bend and near coastal regions absent upper level support will keep PoPs around 20-30% and primarily focused on the seabreeze.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
After a very rare late July cold frontal passage which brought much drier air and some record low temperatures to the region, unsettled conditions will quickly return and become the main theme of the fcst through at least the early part of the work week. This will be caused by a slow moving upper level trof which will extend from the Great Lakes region southward to the Gulf coast, with it`s southern extent even becoming a bit more amplified on Mon and Tue, which has been especially consistent in the past 2 Euro solutions.
Therefore, have gradually increasing PoPs across the region through the short term period (quite similar to the previous fcst), higher dewpoints, and increasing cloud cover, which will of course lead to lower high temps across the board, and warmer low temps as well.
Long Term [Monday night through Friday]...
The positive tilted 500 mb trough to our northwest, and the quasi-stationary surface trough across our forecast area will weaken on Tuesday.
A deep layer ridge, the western extent of the semi-permanent Bermuda ridge, will build across the FL Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico for the remainder of the work week.
Daily PoPs will be near average on Tuesday (40-50%), then a little below-average for the remainder of the week (30%) as deep layer moisture decreases.
High temperatures will be in the lower 90s Tuesday, then mid 90s Wednesday through Friday. Lows will be in the 70s.
Low cigs are forecast to impact VLD,DHN and ABY this morning.
As of 830z ABY was already at MVFR and through the end of the morning expect them (and VLD) to drop down to IFR after 10Z.
After 15z VLD,DHN, and ABY should all be VFR.
There is a chance of VCTS at all terminals this afternoon, but only mentioned in VLD,DHN,and ABY TAFs where chances for TS were higher.
Despite the presence of an upper level low pressure system which will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters during the next several days, the surface pressure pattern will remain very weak.
This will keep winds quite low (even for the summer) and seas which will struggle to reach one foot outside of any showers and storms.
Summerlike conditions and near normal chances for rain will keep fire concerns at a minimum over the next few days.
Area rivers are currently all well below bank full stage, and a few in low flow stage.
The latest rainfall total estimates through Tuesday will range from 1 to 2 inches (with locally higher amounts possible) across the region.
These low amounts should not cause any significant rises along our river basins.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 73 93 72 91 / 20 30 60 30 60
Panama City 90 75 90 76 88 / 30 20 50 30 40
Dothan 91 72 91 72 90 / 40 40 50 30 60
Albany 91 73 91 73 90 / 40 30 60 30 60
Valdosta 96 73 94 71 92 / 40 50 60 30 60
Cross City 93 71 92 71 91 / 30 50 50 30 50
Apalachicola 88 75 90 76 88 / 20 20 50 30 40