Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Active afternoon across the region as moderate westerly flow has helped push convection inland across the region. Storms continue to fire west of I-65 in Southwestern Alabama and these should continue moving eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours.
These storms will likely be in a weakening phase while nearing Southeast Alabama by sunset, so expect most storms across the region to end by midnight.
Overnight as skies inland clear, expect scattered showers and storms to develop over the coastal waters, particularly west of Apalachicola. Some of these storms will near the Panhandle coast around sunrise on Monday.
Low temperatures will be on the warm side, generally in the mid 70s.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
High pressure in place will keep deep level westerly flow through the period with very little if any southerly component.
This means there won`t be much moisture transport and PWATs will stay in the normal range for this time of year. Given these near normal moisture values and the 1000-700mb flow being west at over 10 knots, going close to climo values for regime 5 sea-breeze Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will also be near normal for this time of year with highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
As the long term period begins Wednesday, high pressure will shift northward / inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly to northwesterly and then variable.
This will mean even less moisture transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this time of year.
Temperatures will be hotter than normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid 70s.
VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms will prevail through the early morning hours.
With skies expected to clear overnight, expect MVFR/IFR vsbys to develop at most sites, with the greatest likelihood of restrictions being at VLD.
Restrictions should end by 13z with VFR conditions returning through the end of the TAF cycle.
With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally be from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along the coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings.
Waves will be 2 feet or less through the period.
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from .25 to .50 inches. With area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 75 94 76 95 75 / 20 50 10 40 20
Panama City 79 90 79 91 78 / 20 40 20 30 10
Dothan 74 95 74 93 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
Albany 74 94 74 94 75 / 40 30 20 30 20
Valdosta 73 94 75 94 74 / 20 40 20 40 20
Cross City 74 92 74 93 74 / 10 30 10 30 10
Apalachicola 78 90 78 91 79 / 20 30 20 20 10