Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front to our west is racing eastward today after being stalled for days, thanks to an midlevel shortwave impulse, and is sending out boundaries ahead of it, helping aid in convection today. The sea breeze has been mainly confined to north Florida, with storms forming near the AL-GA border along a line of low level convergence.
All of this is keeping coverage of showers and thunderstorms high again today as expected.
With the high cloud cover and early start to storms again today, highs will only reach the low 90s today, but high humidity will make it feel about 100-105 degrees.
Lows tonight will be in the mid-70s.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
On Tuesday an upper level trough will amplify from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley which will reinforce a frontal boundary extending across the Southeast U.S. and push it south toward the Gulf Coast.
Wednesday the upper trough will begin to swing toward New England and the mid-Atlantic coast, with the front moving into southern GA and southeast AL near an Albany/Dothan line during the afternoon.
Overnight Wednesday the east-west oriented front will become quasi-stationary or settle slowly southward, but should remain north of I-10.
Deep layer moisture will remain in place Tuesday with precipitable water values around 2 inches. With the frontal boundary pushing south and cyclonic mid and upper level flow, the result will be widespread showers and thunderstorms.
By Wednesday as the frontal boundary pushes toward I-10, distinctly drier air will begin to filter into southern GA and southeast AL during the afternoon.
This will result in continued precipitation coverage along and south of the boundary with generally dry conditions or just limited convection north of it.
Unlike other frontal boundaries this summer, this front doesn`t look like it will clear our region.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Thursday and Friday the upper level trough will continue to lift to the northeast as the subtropical high builds across the southeast over the weekend.
Thursday the stationary front will bisect our area in an east-northeast to west-southwest orientation from around Tifton in far southeast GA to the FL panhandle-AL border, before becoming quasi-stationary Friday.
In general storm coverage will not be as widespread as we have seen early this week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and to the south of the front, and dry conditions to isolated storms north of the boundary.
The boundary will lift north as a warm front on Saturday. This will set the stage for moist return flow over the weekend into early next week with increasing precipitation coverage again across the region.
Generally VFR conditions, with MVFR possible when storms are near area terminals.
IFR-MVFR fog likely again at DHN, ABY, and VLD Tuesday morning, clearing by 14Z.
West to southwest flow will continue around 10kts with seas 1-2 feet through mid week as a frontal boundary stalls north of the Gulf Coast.
Expect the pressure gradient and winds to weaken later this week and next weekend as the sub-tropical ridge builds across the Gulf.
No fire weather concerns for the week with to plenty of area moisture.
With area rivers running at / below normal and 3-day rainfall forecasts maxing out around 2.5 inches, significant flooding is not a concern.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 76 94 76 93 74 / 30 60 40 40 30
Panama City 79 91 79 91 77 / 30 50 40 40 40
Dothan 75 93 73 93 71 / 40 60 30 30 20
Albany 75 93 74 93 72 / 30 60 30 30 20
Valdosta 74 94 74 93 72 / 40 70 40 50 30
Cross City 75 91 75 92 74 / 50 70 40 40 30
Apalachicola 79 91 78 91 77 / 30 40 40 40 40