Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The frontal boundary over central Georgia has shifted northward, away from us, so we haven`t seen as much activity in our northern Georgia counties as we expected.
Our northwestern zones haven`t seen as much activity yet with the boundary in eastern AL traveling slowly eastward and will enter our area soon.
So far today, the main influence on our weather has actually been the type 5 seabreeze thanks to stronger winds at the lower levels than we`ve seen the past few days. With higher moisture than the past few days as well, this has made for higher coverage along the Florida Panhandle coastline.
On the tri-state border, where moisture is high along the river, convection has started to increase ahead of the main seabreeze boundary.
Coverage of storms is expected to fill in this area, along our FL-GA border, and in southeast AL soon, with storms in GA to develop later in the evening.
Highs will range from around 90 to the mid-upper 90s and lows tonight will be in the mid 70s.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A long wave trough will deepen across the eastern U.S. as a ridge holds to the south of the region. This will keep a surface front in place to our north early in the week, which will be reinforced by the deepening upper level trough.
The front will edge toward the northern part of our area by midweek. Precipitable water values will remain close to 2 inches.
Expect convection to increase in coverage for Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures will still be above normal for this time of year but somewhat suppressed by increased convection/cloud cover.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The deepening upper level trough across the east will reinforce a front to our north and force it to the northern edge of our area.
This front will stall late Wednesday through Thursday in an east-west orientation across south Georgia and southeast Alabama, with drier air just edging toward an Albany-Dothan line.
As a surface high builds across the Midwest behind this front, models indicate different solutions in how far the drier air will make it across the Southeast. We will have a better handle on any drying for our area as we move into the early part of this week, but rain chances will be highest ahead of the front with drier conditions behind.
Overnight lows and daytime highs will also be difficult to pin down as any drying will allow for lower mins, while increased convection ahead of the front will suppress daytime highs.
Aviation...[Through 18Z Monday]
Conditions will generally be VFR with MVFR conditions possible during stronger storms passing by terminals.
TSRA in the ECP, TLH, and VLD areas at this time, but coverage will later expand into DHN and ABY.
Winds should generally be west/southwest at less than 10 knots, but will be gustier with storms.
BR development and MVFR vsbys possible again early tomorrow morning at DHN, ABY, and VLD.
A moderate increase in the pressure gradient across the waters is expected for Monday as high pressure remains south of the area and a trough of low pressure moves closer to the Gulf Coast.
Sustained winds will increase above 10 knots at times and seas will average near 2 feet with winds out of the west to southwest.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds through the period, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria.
With area rivers running at or below normal and 3-day QPF under 2 inches, significant flooding is not a concern at this time.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 95 75 94 75 / 30 60 30 60 40
Panama City 78 90 77 90 77 / 30 50 30 50 50
Dothan 74 93 74 93 74 / 30 60 20 60 30
Albany 74 94 75 95 74 / 40 60 30 60 30
Valdosta 73 96 74 96 75 / 40 60 30 60 30
Cross City 75 91 74 91 74 / 30 50 30 50 40
Apalachicola 77 90 78 90 78 / 30 50 30 50 50