NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]...
The latest runs of convection-allowing models, including HRRR, NCEP 4km WRF models, and our local TAE-WRF, all agree on a greater concentration of thunderstorms today west of the Ochlockonee River in the Florida Panhandle and perhaps into southeast Alabama.
This is largely due to an existing gradient in boundary layer moisture, with the deeper moisture situated in the western half of our area.
The HRRR shows surface dewpoints in south-central Georgia mixing down into the mid-60s, which in turn yields very little CAPE.
Therefore, we could see a repeat of yesterday in which SC GA is essentially sunny and dry, compared to a fairly high coverage of rain in the western half of the area.
We did not make the contrast this drastic, but that could be something for the subsequent shift to consider. Given these expectations, high temperatures will be warmest in the east, with mid-90s common, and 90-93 degree highs over the west.
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Not too much change from the previous fcst on the end of the weekend and beginning of next week, with the exception of slightly higher PoPs that are now expected for Sunday, mainly across the NW 1/3 of the CWA where the upper level ridge will not become as quickly
Therefore, went with 50% rain chances for SE AL and parts of the FL Panhandle, where the moist SW Flow will remain in control.
Otherwise, expect PoPs to decrease to the 40-30% range as we head further to the SE where the ridge will show greater influence.
By Monday, expect the upper ridge to be the dominant feature across the Tri-State area, with PoPs only ranging from 20 percent to the S and 30% to the N.
In any event, it is expected to be a rather hot period, with High Temps generally in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast, and maximum Heat Indices between 100 and 107 degrees over the entire region.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Thursday]...
The thin upper level ridge will break down as a trough deepens
across the eastern CONUS. This will result in a wetter than average period with temperatures at or just slightly below normal.
AVIATION [through 06 UTC Sunday]...
Patchy MVFR-IFR ceilings or fog will be possible closer to sunrise,
transitioning to widespread VFR as clouds scatter out.
Showers and storms are expected, primarily 15-23 UTC and in the western parts of our area. This suggests that the DHN and ECP terminals would have the greatest chance to be impacted, with TLH slightly less so. ABY and VLD stand the greatest chance to be dry.
After a period of slightly elevated southeasterly winds, some of the
longer period swells have kept seas running a bit higher than what
the typical wind/wave relationship would produce.
However, both winds and seas continue to slowly fall, and more typical summertime conditions of light winds and low seas are expected for much of the period.
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
All area rivers are continuing to slowly decrease in flow for the time being, and this should continue through the near and short term
periods, with no widespread heavy rainfall expected.
However, there are indications in the long range models that a return to a rather wet and troughy pattern could return for much of the remainder of the period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 94 74 95 74 96 / 40 20 40 20 20
Panama City 88 77 92 78 91 / 50 20 40 20 20
Dothan 92 73 95 74 95 / 50 20 50 30 30
Albany 94 73 95 74 96 / 30 20 40 20 30
Valdosta 96 73 97 73 97 / 20 10 40 20 30
Cross City 92 73 95 72 95 / 30 20 30 20 20
Apalachicola 88 78 89 78 90 / 30 20 30 20 20
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