Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A 23z subjective surface analysis depicted a cold front stretched
south/southwest through eastern Alabama, and into the northern
Gulf along the FL/AL line.
The warm front draped across Georgia has diminished, and a weakening squall line was noted across the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida, into the northeast Gulf.
Convection from earlier this afternoon along the cold front in the Gulf, generated a low/mid level PV anomaly which is being advected
to the north and northeast towards the Florida Gulf Coast at this
Well ahead of the front, this feature will likely do little other than bringing some continued light shower activity for the next few hours.
However, where a low level piece of this feature has drifted more north in the slightly more backed low-level flow, it is interacting with the cold front and producing an area of increased convection.
Expect the quick moving, short lived burst of moderate to heavy rain (and possibly and isolated thunderstorm) to move across the Panhandle and eventually into south Georgia, but weakening as it does so. At this time, severe weather is not anticipated with these storms.
Also, we are monitoring steady moderate to heavy rainfall across
the southeast Big Bend where the squall line has slowed considerably.
With the aforementioned disturbance moving northeast out of the Gulf, it may act to slow this line a bit more and keep the steady rainfall in place for a few more hours. This could result in some isolated rural flooding.
Expect the rain to clear our southeast Big Bend counties by dawn.
Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The initial cold front will be moving into the eastern FL panhandle early tonight continuing the threat for severe weather and isolated
As the forcing continues to pull off to the northeast overnight along with the associated surface low, the threat will gradually diminish, with little in the way of severe weather expected after midnight.
By daybreak showers and isolated thunderstorms will be confined mainly to the FL Big Bend area.
Behind the initial line of thunderstorms, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible for a few hours overnight into
early Tuesday morning.
By Tuesday afternoon and evening, another vort max and upper level cold pool will reinforce the upper trough and will swing across the northern portion of the CWA resulting in scattered showers.
An isolated thunderstorm is also possible generally north of I-10 during the afternoon and early evening as the airmass destabilizes under the cold pool aloft.
For Tuesday night and Wednesday expect dry conditions.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will fall below normal with
highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The period will generally be mild with temperatures gradually
warming into the upper 70s Friday with lower 80s for the weekend
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...
MVFR ceilings will be scattered around this evening, gradually
returning to VFR behind the cold front from west to east through
All terminals should start tomorrow unlimited VFR, before some mid-level cloud cover moves in from the west mid to late afternoon.
Southerly winds will continue gradually veer to the southwest across the marine area this afternoon and evening as the surface low to our north moves northeast.
A small craft advisory remains in effect through early this evening, and small craft will need to exercise caution.
Winds and seas will decrease from west to east on Tuesday, but then ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as a secondary front pushes across the gulf.
Winds will drop below headline criteria Wednesday night and remain low into the weekend.
No Fire Weather concerns are expected at least through the upcoming week.
Extensive heavy rainfall has occurred today across the region with
radar/gage estimates of 2 to 3 inches over a widespread area from
the Florida Panhandle eastward through South Central Georgia.
Heavier rainfall amounts of 4 to 5 inches have occurred through 4 pm
ET across Southwestern Georgia, generally from Donalsonville NE into portions of Southern Worth County.
With the bulk of the heavier rainfall in the last 36 to 48 hours falling across the northern portion of the river basins, expect rises on several river points to reach flood stage over the next few days.
In Southern Alabama...the Pea River at Ariton continues to rise
sharply, though the rate of rise has lessened just a bit in the last
Even with a slower rate of rise, there still appears to be enough runoff to reach flood stage.
Further down through the Pea River, river levels should stay below flood stage at Elba.
The Upper Choctawhatchee River at Newton will reach flood stage
later this evening.
Flows progressing downstream from the Choctawhatchee and Pea River may end up ultimately pushing Geneva to minor flood stage by Wednesday night.
Caryville and Bruce will easily reach flood stage over the next few days as routed flows progress downstream.
Moderate flood stage appears likely at Bruce.
Further eastward into the Flint River Basin, heavier rainfall totals
below Albany will likely result in rises above minor flood stage at
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 62 74 50 74 44 / 90 20 30 0 0
Panama City 60 73 54 72 52 / 90 20 30 0 0
Dothan 51 74 49 71 46 / 60 20 60 0 0
Albany 54 74 49 74 45 / 80 10 60 0 0
Valdosta 62 73 49 74 44 / 90 30 30 10 0
Cross City 65 78 50 75 45 / 80 60 20 10 10
Apalachicola 61 73 53 71 50 / 90 20 30 0 0
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-South Walton-
High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.