NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2014
Near Term [Through Today]...
A quasi-stationary front extended from roughly just west of Savannah
SWWD to near Cape San Blas this Saturday afternoon.
This front may pivot to become more in line with north Florida overnight with convection concentrated along and north of the boundary mainly due to isentropic ascent.
Will show PoPs tapered from slight to low end ehance along the coast to likely from near the I-10 corridor northward.
Rainfall amounts are generally expected to range from 0.50" - 0.75" over our northern tier zones to just a few hundredths along the coast.
Min temps will be in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The latest NWP guidance is largely unchanged since Friday, except
for slowing down the timing of Monday`s squall line.
On Sunday and Sunday night a warm front (currently the quasi-stationary front bisecting our forecast area) will translate slowly northward.
This will shift the heaviest and most concentrated rain northward into
central AL & GA.
On Monday morning a pre-frontal squall line (or perhaps multiple bands of storms) will move into our western zones (i.e. west of the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River), then exit east of our region Monday Night or early Tuesday.
The large scale environment still appears conducive for at least isolated severe thunderstorms.
High values of vertical wind shear, Q-G forcing, and deep layer moisture appear supportive of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes along a convective band(s) that may be quite "LEWPy".
The main limiting factor, at least from a synoptic standpoint, will be CAPE. Consensus MLCAPE values are generally around 500 J/kg in the warm sector, limited primarily by poor mid tropospheric lapse rates.
However, severe weather climatology suggests that such marginal instability can be compensated for when shear values are very high.
Additionally, if there are breaks in the clouds there could be pockets of enhanced CAPE.
Tuesday promises to be a much quieter day behind the cold front.
The GFS and ECMWF do show some light QPF associated with a strong short wave trough rounding the base of the eastern CONUS longwave trough, but such features rarely amount to much in our region.
1000-850 mb thicknesses will decrease by 30-40 meters between Monday and Tuesday, so we expect an end to our recent stretch of above-average temperatures as highs only reach the upper 60s (Albany and Dothan region) to mid 70s (Cross City region).
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The deep long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will quickly lift
out into the Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday, followed by a
period of mostly zonal flow over the Gulf Coast.
The weather will be fair.
Temperatures, especially at night, will start off below average, then return to average levels later in the period.
The unsettled weather pattern continues with a stalled front across the area.
We will see generally MVFR to IFR cigs with occasional MVFR vsbys through the TAF cycle.
Also, included convective tempo groups (and possibly some brief gusty winds) at TLH, ECP, and VLD to start the 18z package.
Otherwise, we can expect periods of showers and possibly TSTMS at any time through the period.
Light winds & relatively low seas will continue into Sunday morning,
then increase Sunday afternoon through Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
Advisory conditions are possible, as are severe storms during the day on Monday as a strong squall lines moves east through the marine area.
No Fire Weather concerns are expected during the next several days.
At this time all of the area rivers are below flood stage.
Many of these rivers remain at elevated stages, still falling from rainfall about a week ago.
Rain chances will be on the increase this weekend and into Monday before a cold front pushes through the area.
In general, heavier rainfall amounts are expected further north - over
southern Alabama and southwest Georgia - or roughly along and north of a Crestview to Camilla to Alapaha line.
A general 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over most of the area, with 2 to 3 inches north of the aforementioned line.
Isolated totals perhaps up to 4 or 5 inches will be possible across the northern and northwest parts of the area.
This will be sufficient to cause rises on most area rivers, and a few could reach flood stage by early next week.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 61 81 62 81 59 / 60 50 20 80 70
Panama City 63 74 67 75 59 / 40 50 30 80 50
Dothan 59 75 64 76 53 / 70 70 40 80 40
Albany 59 75 62 80 53 / 70 80 30 80 60
Valdosta 61 83 63 81 59 / 60 50 10 70 80
Cross City 60 83 62 82 63 / 20 20 10 50 80
Apalachicola 63 74 66 75 59 / 30 30 20 80 60
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay (and likely for the entire coastal area late day Sunday into Monday evening).