Near Term [Through Today]...
Partly cloudy skies should dominate for today.
The ridge over the southeastern states early this morning will slide
east through the day as a shortwave trough digs into the Mississippi
With zonal flow aloft and a dry atmosphere in place, expect to see temperatures warm into the mid 80s this afternoon away from the coast.
An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer to the Suwannee River this afternoon as the east coast and gulf seabreezes meet up. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected.
Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak disturbance will approach the region on Thursday evening
and move just to the north of the region on Friday.
While this disturbance will bring a slight increase in moisture, large scale forcing is relatively weak, so rain chances will be kept at 10
percent or less.
Following the passing of this disturbance on Friday evening, drier air will filter into the region from the northwest as a stronger deep layer ridge starts to build in across the forecast area late Saturday.
Temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm,
though cloud cover on Friday will likely limit temperatures to the
low to mid 80s in the afternoon.
As the deep layer ridge becomes more established by Saturday, temperatures will trend upward with upper 80s likely across many of the inland locations Saturday afternoon.
Low temperatures will continue to stay a few degrees above normal, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
With the strong sea breeze circulation expected, temperatures during the afternoon near the coast will be several degrees cooler.
Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina.
To our northwest, an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low beneath it.
As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low across the Plains and into the Ohio valley.
The associated front will bring thunderstorms to our area late Monday through Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.
The GFS is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe.
The system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.
IFR visibility expected at KTLH, KVLD, and KECP this morning, with conditions possibly approaching airport minimums.
VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and hold through the remainder of the day.
Another potentially foggy night is possible tonight.
Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will
remain low through the weekend.
An increase in onshore winds and seas across the entire marine area is anticipated by Monday ahead of an approaching storm system.
Low level moisture levels will remain high enough to prevent any Red
Flag conditions through Friday, as minimum relative humidity values
stay in the 40s.
As transport winds increase on Friday, dispersion values will increase into the 70s and 80s for inland locations.
Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage.
Most area rivers have already crested with the exception of the
Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels
will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week.
The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. For that time, QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches.
The latest river forecast information can be found at:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 60 84 60 85 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 75 64 78 64 79 / 0 10 10 10 0
Dothan 83 61 84 59 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Albany 83 61 84 59 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Valdosta 87 59 84 60 87 / 10 10 10 10 0
Cross City 82 58 81 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 75 64 76 64 75 / 0 10 10 10 0