Near Term [Through Tonight]...
This Afternoon...With low stratus holding firm...max temps will have trouble making it to mid 60s. Updated GRIDS to lower this aftn MAX temps and increase clouds.
The mid/upper ridge over MS this eve will move east to
the AL/GA border by sunrise Monday. In response mid/upper low
will continue to slowly lift Newd farther off the SC coast. This
results in rising heights...increasing subsidence and mid/upper
gradually drying overspreading local region from W-E.
At surface...as nearly vertically stacked low lifts Newd...high pressure ridge continues to ridge down Ern seaboard into Gulf coast. The combination of this departing low and building ridge will keep local gradients above normal. Overnight area soundings show increasing NE flow surface-H8 then backing to NWLY above.
Locally this translates to overnight winds in the 5-10 mph range
highest Ern counties and with PWATS remaining around 0.7-0.8
inches...expect some lower ceilings to persist at least thru
midnight especially Ern GA counties (although thinner than earlier
today and with breaks).
Clouds should increasingly scatter out Wrn counties by midnight.
With winds in the 5 to 10 mph range...fog very unlikely. CAM/ Local confidence tool...Bufkit and SREF show improving clouds conditions and lack of fog.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday]...
With deep layer ridging in place through Monday, fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures near climatology.
Rain chances will increase on Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front from the northwest.
Unlike the last couple of systems, this one looks much weaker with less coverage of rain along with lighter amounts, which is much more typical for April.
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to weak forcing and weak winds aloft.
Temperatures will continue near climo values on Tuesday.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The pattern appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and a weak system may affect the area on Saturday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
PoPs for the remainder of the period look to be below 20 percent.
Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above their seasonal averages.
Low level cloudiness with MVFR CIGS will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE through the rest of this afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further away.
By midnight VFR should overspread entire area.
NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist overnight so neither fog nor AOB MVFR CIGS expected although borderline MVFR CIGS may linger across N/E of VLD may linger.
After sunrise winds will become less than 10 MPH with VFR conditions everywhere.
No major systems are expected to affect the area through next week.
Winds will become westerly ahead of an approaching weak cold front on Tuesday, but they should remain rather light.
The airmass will dry out on Monday but remain above critical levels.
It will begin to gradually moisten up on Tuesday.
Red Flag conditions are not expected thru the upcoming work week.
The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage
Other points reaching moderate flood stage are: Choctawhatchee at Caryville, Chipola at Altha, St. Mark`s at Newport and the Ochlockonee at Concord and Havana.
Rainfall with Tuesday`s system is expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.
The latest river forecast information can be found at:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 52 79 52 83 60 / 0 0 0 20 10
Panama City 56 75 59 77 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
Dothan 52 79 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 40 20
Albany 50 80 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 40 20
Valdosta 50 78 50 83 59 / 0 0 0 20 20
Cross City 52 79 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 56 73 57 77 62 / 0 0 0 10 10